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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Interleukin 6 Levels and their Correlation with Various Hematological and Biochemical Parameters in Covid-19 Patients
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Background: coronavirus 19 is a beta-coronavirus, enveloped and roughly spherical with approximately 60 to 140 nm in diameter with positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome.

Objectives: Measurement of interleukin 6 (IL6) level in a group of patients with confirmed Covid19 infection and its correlation with many hematological and  biochemical parameters , mainly lymphocyte , neutrophil  count and their ratio , platelet count , serum ferritin , C reactive protein as well as D-dimer level

Subjects and Methods: This study was conducted on 60 PCR positive patients variably affected by COVID-19 , cases collected sequentially from June till November 20

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 08 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Performance of Contractual Obligations
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The global health crisis resulting from the spread of the Corona virus, which the World Health Organization described on January 30, 2020 as a public health emergency of international concern, then returned to describe it as a pandemic on March 11, 2020, and the measures and procedures taken by government authorities in different countries of the world, whether at the highest level of imposing a comprehensive curfew or what is called globally home quarantine and thus disrupting all sectors and activities in the state, whether public or private (with the exception of some sectors such as the health, media and security sectors), or at a lower level than that, such as reducing work rates in different sectors by rates that vary from one country

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
American Rock Mechanics Association
Using an Analytical Model to Predict Collapse Volume During Drilling: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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Zubair Formation is one of the richest petroleum systems in Southern Iraq. This formation is composed mainly of sandstones interbedded with shale sequences, with minor streaks of limestone and siltstone. Borehole collapse is one of the most critical challenges that continuously appear in drilling and production operations. Problems associated with borehole collapse, such as tight hole while tripping, stuck pipe and logging tools, hole enlargement, poor log quality, and poor primary cement jobs, are the cause of the majority of the nonproductive time (NPT) in the Zubair reservoir developments. Several studies released models predicting the onset of borehole collapse and the amount of enlargement of the wellbore cross-section. However, assump

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
The 53rd U.s. Rock Mechanics/geomechanics Symposium
Using an analytical model to predict collapse volume during drilling: A case study from southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 30 2026
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agriculture And Statistical Science
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING OF THE RISK OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) IN HIGH-QUALITY AND LOW-QUALITY HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS, USING ANN MODELS
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COVID-19 is a disease that has abnormal over 170 nations worldwide. The number of infected people (either sick or dead) has been growing at a worrying ratio in virtually all the affected countries. Forecasting procedures can be instructed so helping in scheming well plans and in captivating creative conclusions. These procedures measure the conditions of the previous thus allowing well forecasts around the state to arise in the future. These predictions strength helps to make contradiction of likely pressures and significances. Forecasting procedures production a very main character in elastic precise predictions. In this case study used two models in order to diagnose optimal approach by compared the outputs. This study was introduce

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Assessment of the Awareness of COVID-19 among the Students Enrolled in Different Medical Universities of Pakistan: A Cross Sectional Survey
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Background: The study was designed for the assessment of the knowledge of medical students regarding pandemics. In the current designed study, the level of awareness was checked and the majority of students were found aware of SARS-CoV and SARS-Cov2 (Covid-19).

Objective: To assess the awareness of SARS-CoV and SARS-Cov2 (Covid-19) among medical students of Pakistan.

Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in different universities of Pakistan from May to August 2020. A self-constructed questionnaire by Pursuing the clinical and community administration of COVID-19 given by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China was used am

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Detection of Depression among Nurses Providing Care for Patients with COVID-19 at Baqubah Teaching Hospital
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Objectives: The present study aims at detecting the depression among nurses who provide care for infected patients with corona virus phenomenon and to find out relationships between the depression and their demographic characteristics of age, gender, marital status, type of family, education, and years of experience of nurses in heath institutions, infection by corona virus, and their participation in training courses.
Methodology: A descriptive study is established for a period from October 10th, 2020 to April 15th, 2021. The study is conducted on a purposive (non-probability) sample of (100) nurse who are providing care for patients with COVID-19 and they are selected from the isolation wards. The instrument of the study is develope

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Pulmonary CT findings in Patients Recovered from COVID-19 Pneumonia
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Background: The COVID-19 infection is a more recent pandemic disease all over the world and studying the pulmonary findings on survivors of this disease has lately commenced.

Objective: We aimed to estimate the cumulative percentage of whole radiological resolution after 3 months from recovery and to define the residual chest CT findings and exploring the relevant affecting factors.

Subjects and Methods: Patients who had been previously diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by RT-PCR test and had radiological evidence of pulmonary involvement by Chest CT during the acute illness were included in the present study. The radiol

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Applied Hematology
D-dimer and Ferritin Levels in Prediction of COVID-19 Severity
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Abstract<sec> <title>BACKGROUND:

The most common cause of upper respiratory tract infection is coronavirus, which has a crown appearance due to the existence of spikes on its envelope. D-dimer levels in the plasma have been considered a prognostic factor for COVID-19 patients.

AIM OF THE STUDY:

The aim of the study is to demonstrate the role of COVID-19 on coagulation parameters D-dimer and ferritin with their association with COVID-19 severity and disease progression in a single-center study.

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