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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
المجلة السياسية والدولية
Foreign Policy and Asymmetric Threats The United States after 2001 as a model
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يشهد المسرح الدولي قضايا مستجدة ومستحدثة مثل تعدد الفاعلين من الدول ومن غير الدول وتزايد مساحات نفوذهم وتأثيرهم ،ومن جانب اخر أثرت جائحة كورونا على البيئة والمناخ بشكل ملموس على جوانب عدة. فضلا عن ذلك تأثرت جميع المجتمعات البشرية بالإرهاب والهجمات الالكترونية وغيرها ومن بينها دول والمجتمع الدولي بإفراده مؤسسات وكيان اقتصادي وسياسي وقانوني وأمني وامتداد اثاره واسبابه الكثيرة والمتداخلة وما يثيره من خلق حا

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of merger in creating differences in the profitability of companies Analytical research between a sample of subsidiaries to the Iraqi Ministry of Industry and Minerals
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The research aims to identify the impact of the merger of the companies affiliated to the Ministry of Industry and Minerals on their financial profitability since the companies before the merger suffered a rise in losses and the deficit reached very high levels that affected its overall performance and even on the morale of workers as losses are increasing and solutions Efficiency is absent. The problem stems from knowing the impact of the merger on the profitability ratios of the companies. The research field was represented by the companies affiliated to the Ministry of Industry and Minerals (21) companies, while the research sample reached (6) companies after the merger (14) companies before the merger, was based on data The f

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Basic And Applied Sciences
A reliable iterative method for solving the epidemic model and the prey and predator problems
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In the present article, we implement the new iterative method proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari (NIM) [V. Daftardar-Gejji, H. Jafari, An iterative method for solving nonlinear functional equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 316 (2006) 753-763] to solve two problems; the first one is the problem of spread of a non-fatal disease in a population which is assumed to have constant size over the period of the epidemic, and the other one is the problem of the prey and predator. The results demonstrate that the method has many merits such as being derivative-free, overcome the difficulty arising in calculating Adomian polynomials to handle the nonlinear terms in Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM), does not require to calculate Lagrange multiplier a

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Raw Water Turbidity at the Intakes of the Water Treatment Plants along Tigris River in Baghdad, Iraq using Frequency Analysis
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Different frequency distributions models were fitted to the monthly data of raw water Turbidity at water treatment plants (WTPs) along Tigris River in Baghdad. Eight water treatment plants in Baghdad were selected, with raw water turbidity data for the period (2008-2014). The frequency distribution models used in this study are the Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Exponential and two parameters Gamma type. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. The data for years (2008-2011) were used for building the models. The best fitted distributions were Log-Normal (LN) for Al-Karkh, Al-Wathbah, Al-Qadisiya, Al- Dawrah and, Al-Rashid WTPs. Gamma distribution fitted well for East Tigris and Al-Karamah WTPs. As for Al-

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Raw Water Turbidity at the Intakes of the Water Treatment Plants along Tigris River in Baghdad, Iraq using Frequency Analysis
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Different frequency distributions models were fitted to the monthly data of raw water Turbidity at water treatment plants (WTPs) along Tigris River in Baghdad. Eight water treatment plants in Baghdad were selected, with raw water turbidity data for the period (2008-2014). The frequency distribution models used in this study are the Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Exponential and two parameters Gamma type. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit.  The data for years (2008-2011) were used for building the models. The best fitted distributions were Log-Normal (LN) for Al-Karkh, Al-Wathbah, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dawrah and, Al-Rashid WTPs. Gamma distribution fitted well for East Tigris and Al-Karamah

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Molecular study to the fungus Neosetophomasamarorum was isolated from Al Chabaish marsh, South of Iraq
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IA Ali, FK Emran, DF Salloom, Annals of the Romanian Society for Cell Biology, 2021

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 15 2024
Journal Name
Mammalia
Brandt’s Hedgehog, <i>Paraechinus hypomelas</i> (Brandt, 1836), new to the mammal fauna of Iraq
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Abstract<p>Due to the wide distribution through the Iranian Plateau, especially in its western parts adjacent to Iraq’s northeastern borders, the occurrence of Brandt’s Hedgehog <italic>Paraechinus hypomelas</italic> (Brandt, 1836) was suspected, but no confirmed records were made. In 2021–2023, several sightings were obtained during <italic>in situ</italic> surveys in the Bamo-Khoshk Mountains in the Kurdistan region-northeastern Iraq which confirm the first occurrence of this species in the country.</p>
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Front Public Health
Association of Cytochrome CYP1A1 Gene Polymorphisms and Tobacco Smoking with the Risk of Breast Cancer in Women from Iraq
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Background: CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms and tobacco smoking are among several risk factors for various types of cancers, but their influence on breast cancer remains controversial. We analyzed the possible association of CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms and tobacco smoking-related breast cancer in women from Iraq. Materials and methods: In this case-control study, gene polymorphism of CYP1A1 gene (CYP1A1m1, T6235C and CYP1A1m2, A4889G) of 199 histologically verified breast cancer patients' and 160 cancer-free control women's specimens were performed by using PCR-based restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results: Three genotype frequencies (TT, TC, and CC) of CYP1A1m1T/C appeared in 16.1, 29.6, and 54.3% of women with breast cancer, respectiv

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solutions for the Nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order by Using a New Double Integral Transform with Variational Iteration Method
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This paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solutions for the Nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order by Using a New Double Integral Transform with Variational Iteration Method
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This paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient

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Scopus (8)
Crossref (4)
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