Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Background: One of the significant public health problems is the traumatic dental injury to the anterior teeth, it has a great impact on children’s daily. Physical and psychological disturbance, pain and other negative impacts, such as tendency to avoid laughing or smiling may be associated with traumatic dental injuries, that may affect the social relationships. To determine the occurrence of traumatic dental injuries in relation to quality of life, this study was established among children of primary schools. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among private (574) and governmental (1026) primary school children in Baghdad city. Dental trauma was assessed according to Ellis and Davey classification in1970
... Show MoreConditional logistic regression is often used to study the relationship between event outcomes and specific prognostic factors in order to application of logistic regression and utilizing its predictive capabilities into environmental studies. This research seeks to demonstrate a novel approach of implementing conditional logistic regression in environmental research through inference methods predicated on longitudinal data. Thus, statistical analysis of longitudinal data requires methods that can properly take into account the interdependence within-subjects for the response measurements. If this correlation ignored then inferences such as statistical tests and confidence intervals can be invalid largely.
This research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing i
... Show MoreThis research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing it with anothe
... Show MoreWastewater recycling for non-potable uses has gained significant attention to mitigate the high pressure on freshwater resources. This requires using a sustainable technique to treat natural municipal wastewater as an alternative to conventional methods, especially in arid and semi-arid rural areas. One of the promising techniques applied to satisfy the objective of wastewater reuse is the constructed wetlands (CWs) which have been used extensively in most countries worldwide through the last decades. The present study introduces a significant review of the definition, classification, and components of CWs, identifying the mechanisms controlling the removal process within such units. Vertical, horizontal, and hybrid CWs
... Show MoreBackground: This study aimed to determine the cephalometric values of tetragon analysis on a sample of Iraqi adults with normal occlusion. Material and methods: Forty digital true lateral cephalometric radiographs belong to 20 males and 20 females having normal dental relation were analyzed using AutoCAD program 2009. Descriptive statistics and sample comparison with Fastlicht norms were obtained. Results: The results showed that maxillary and mandibular incisors were more proclined and the maxillary/mandibular planes angle was lower in Iraqi sample than Caucasian sample. Conclusion: It's recommended to use result from this study when using tetragon analysis for Iraqis to get more accurate result.
The aim of this study is to investigate the kinetics of copper removal from aqueous solutions using an electromembrane extraction (EME) system. To achieve this, a unique electrochemical cell design was adopted comprising two glass chambers, a supported liquid membrane (SLM), a graphite anode, and a stainless-steel cathode. The SLM consisted of a polypropylene flat membrane infused with 1-octanol as a solvent and bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (DEHP) as a carrier. The impact of various factors on the kinetics constant rate was outlined, including the applied voltage, initial pH of the donor phase solution, and initial copper concentration. The results demonstrated a significant influence of the applied voltage on enhancing the rate of c
... Show MoreThe accumulation of sediment in reservoirs poses a major challenge that impacts the storage capacity, quality of water, and efficiency of hydroelectric power generation systems. Geospatial methods, including Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), were used to assess Dukan Reservoir sediment quantities. Satellite and reservoir water level data from 2010 to 2022 were used for sedimentation assessment. The satellite data was used to analyze the water spread area, employing the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) to enhance the water surface in the satellite imagery of Dukan Reservoir. The cone formula was employed to calculate the live storag
... Show More(Use of models of game theory in determining the policies to maximize profits for the Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola in the province of Baghdad)
Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition among companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the princi
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