Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
The aim of this study was to determine the effect on using the McCarthy Model (4MAT) for developing creative writing skills and reflective thinking among undergraduate students. The quasi-experimental approach was adopted. And, in order to achieve the study objective, the educational content of Teaching Ethics (Approach 401), for the plan for the primary grades teacher preparation program was dealt with by using a teaching program based on the McCarthy Model (4MAT) was used.
The study which was done had been based on the academic achievement test for creative writing skills, and the reflective thinking test. The validity and reliability of the study tools were also confirmed. The study was applied to a sample consisting of
... Show MoreOmentin (or intelectin) is a main visceral fat secretory adipokine. There is a growing interest to link omentin, obesity and co-morbidity factors. The aim of the present study is to evaluate serum omentin and its association to insulin resistance biomarkers, lipid profile and atherogenic indies. This cross – sectional study was conducted in Obesity Research and Therapy Unit-Alkindy College of Medicine by recruiting (115) individuals; 49 males /66 females. Subjects between (20 to 60) years of age were selected and classified into two groups according to their Body mass index (BMI). Group1 involved healthy lean volunteers (25 male/ 36 female; BMI 18.5 - 24.9). Group2 involved obese subjects; (24 male / 36 female with BMI ≥ 30). The s
... Show MoreBlood samples were collected from (31) pregnant women infected with cytomegalovirus , also (15) blood samples were collected from congenitally infected infants, and (20),(15),(15) blood samples were collected from pregnant women ,non pregnant and infants, respectively, all of them were as control groups. CMV infection identified by using ELISA assay to detect specific CMV IgM & IgG in sera. The results of lymphocyte transformation showed a significant decrease when phytoheamagglutinin (PHA) used as stimulator, lymphocytes response in infected pregnant women was lower than that of non infected pregnant women as well as non pregnant women. Result also showed a significant decrease in the ability of lymphocyte division in healthy pregnant w
... Show MoreThe Khabour reservoir, Ordovician, Lower Paleozoic, Akkas gas field which is considered one of the main sandstone reservoirs in the west of Iraq. Researchers face difficulties in recognizing sandstone reservoirs since they are virtually always tight and heterogeneous. This paper is associated with the geological modeling of a gas-bearing reservoir that containing condensate appears while production when bottom hole pressure declines below the dew point. By defining the lithology and evaluating the petrophysical parameters of this complicated reservoir, a geological model for the reservoir is being built by using CMG BUILDER software (GEM tool) to create a static model. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir were computed using
... Show MoreGiven that the Crimean and Congo hemorrhagic fever is one of the deadly viral diseases that occur seasonally due to the activity of the carrier “tick,” studying and developing a mathematical model simulating this illness are crucial. Due to the delay in the disease’s incubation time in the sick individual, the paper involved the development of a mathematical model modeling the transmission of the disease from the carrier to humans and its spread among them. The major objective is to comprehend the dynamics of illness transmission so that it may be controlled, as well as how time delay affects this. The discussion of every one of the solution’s qualitative attributes is included. According to the established basic reproductio
... Show MoreThe research explain the analysis of finance investments through analyze the finance tables for commercial banks, by using the pointers to indicate the limits of economical benefit for these investments, and fix the negative deviations and as well positive, for the purpose of diagnostic the negative (disadvantage) and develop the advantage deviation, For the importance of finance investments in the development operation and economical growth, further to that the finance investments is represent one of the most activities in the commercial banks in which aim the adequate incomes as a result of the commercial banks act to receipt the banks deposits and then make it growth and develop through commercial advantage o
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This research aims to design a multi-objective mathematical model to assess the project quality based on three criteria: time, cost and performance. This model has been applied in one of the major projects formations of the Saad Public Company which enables to completion the project on time at an additional cost that would be within the estimated budget with a satisfactory level of the performance which match with consumer requirements. The problem of research is to ensure that the project is completed with the required quality Is subject to constraints, such as time, cost and performance, so this requires prioritizing multiple goals. The project
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Statistical control charts are widely used in industry for process and measurement control . in this paper we study the use of markov chain approach in calculating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart for defect the shifts in the mean of process , and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for defect the shifts for process mean and , the standard deviation . Also ,we used the EWMA charts based on the logarithm of the sample variance for monitoring a process standard deviation when the observations (products are selected from al_mamun factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from normal distribution in continuous manufacturing .
Contemporary arts have achieved, in accordance with the transition of concepts, a new logic in presentation and expression in general, and specifically in the field of ceramic art. The shift towards the logic of rejection and subversion of prevailing methods, which have been almost a constant foundation for a long period, has directly influenced the direction of visual arts in the contemporary world.
The growth and cultural transformations that the world has witnessed after the two World Wars have produced cognitive shifts based on strategies that diverge from the dominant culture. These approaches vary according to existential needs, as the language of art has become conceptual and a medium for contemporary culture with its rapid an