Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
After the success of the reforms Keynesian save the capitalist system from collapse and to apply the concepts of state intervention in economic activity in order to revive aggregate demand to achieve the purposes of macro-economic policies which draw their scope of economic (John Keynes) theory of effective demand, which created the new role of the state away from the classical concepts. Valley transmission role of the State of (State Guardian) to the process of state overlapping that increased and social functions have become responsible for raising the standard of living of classes with limited incomes, in particular, and the rest of the classes in general, through the expansion of the delivery of public servic
... Show MoreAbstract: The increased interest in developing new photonic devices that can support high data rates, high sensitivity and fast processing capabilities for all optical communications, motivates a pre stage pulse compressor research. The pre-stage research was based on cascading single mode fiber and polarization maintaining fiber to get pulse compression with compression factor of 1.105. The demand for obtaining more précised photonic devices; this work experimentally studied the behavior of Polarization maintaining fiber PMF that is sandwiched between two cascaded singe mode fiber SMF and fiber Bragg gratings FBG. Therefore; the introduced interferometer performed hybrid interference of both Mach-Zehnder
... Show MoreThis research is an attempt to study aspects of syntactic deviation in AbdulWahhab Al-Bayyati with reference to English. It reviews this phenomenon from an extra-linguistic viewpoint. It adopts a functional approach depending on the stipulates of systemic Functional Grammar as developed by M.A.K. Halliday and others adopting this approach. Within related perspective, fairly’s taxonomy (1975) has been chosen to analyze the types of syntactic deviation because it has been found suitable and relevant to describe this phenomenon. The research hypothesizes that syntactic deviation is pervasive in Arabic poetry, in general and in Abdul-Wahhab Al-Bayyati Poetry in specific, and can be analyzed in the light of systemic Functional Grammar
... Show MoreTo identify the fungi associated with water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes [Mart.] Solms), an aquatic weed, which presents in Tigris river from Baghdad south ward. Five regions from middle and south of Iraq (Al-Noumanya, Saeid Bin-Jubier, Al-Azizia, Al-Reyfay and Al-Hay) were selected for this study. Twelve fungal species were isolated. Alternaria alternata, Acremonium sp and Cladsporium herbarum, were the most frequently species (91.66 % ,50 % and 25 %) respectively. The fungi Alternaria alternata, Acremonium sp. and Phoma eupyrena were more aggressive to water hyacinth as (91.66%,83,33%, and 75%) in pathogenicity test.
The aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu
... Show MoreВ статье рассматриваются понятие наглядности и ее классификация, эффективное применение принципа наглядности, возможность и преимущество использования наглядности и современные инструменты ее реализации в ираке.
Вследствие глобальных изменений во всем мире изменилась и роль иностранного языка в системе образования. Современный человек, шагающий в ногу со временем, не мыслит себя без зна
... Show MorePraise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of Messengers, and upon his family and companions
And whoever follows his guidance until the Day of Judgment. As for what follows: Islamic law commands Muslims to unite, reject disagreement, and not dispute, and to spread the spirit of tolerance and love among them. God Almighty said: “And hold fast to the rope of God all of you and do not become divided, and remember the favor of God upon you when you are enemies and He has joined your hearts.” So, by His grace, you became brothers (1), and He said: (And You will be like those who became divided and disagreed after the clear proofs had come to them. It is they - for them is a great punishment.) (2
... Show MoreSince the emergence of the science of international relations as an independent academic scientific field, various theories and trends have appeared and have tried to understand and explain the international reality and give a clear picture of what is happening within the international system of interactions and influences and the search for tools for stability and peace in international relations. Among these theories is the feminist theory, which is a new intellectual trend on the level of international relations theories, which tried to give an explanation of what is happening in world politics and in international relations in particular. The main issue that feminist theory is concerned with is the lack of women’s subordination
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