Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Segmented regression consists of several sections separated by different points of membership, showing the heterogeneity arising from the process of separating the segments within the research sample. This research is concerned with estimating the location of the change point between segments and estimating model parameters, and proposing a robust estimation method and compare it with some other methods that used in the segmented regression. One of the traditional methods (Muggeo method) has been used to find the maximum likelihood estimator in an iterative approach for the model and the change point as well. Moreover, a robust estimation method (IRW method) has used which depends on the use of the robust M-estimator technique in
... Show MoreA modified water injection technique has organized by this study to improve oil recovery of the Mishrif reservoirs using polymerized alkaline surfactant water (PAS-Water) injection. It is planned to modify the existing water injection technology, first to control and balance the hazardous troublemaker reservoir facies of fifty-micron pore sizes with over 500 millidarcies permeability, along with the non-troublemaker types of less than twenty micron pore sizes with 45 to 100 millidarcies permeability. Second to control Mishrif reservoirs rock-wettability. Special core analysis under reservoir conditions of 2250 psi and 90 °C has carried out on tens of standard core plugs with heterogeneous buildup, using the proposed renewal water f
... Show MoreLaser scanning has become a popular technique for the acquisition of digital models in the field of cultural heritage conservation and restoration nowadays. Many archaeological sites were lost, damaged, or faded, rather than being passed on to future generations due to many natural or human risks. It is still a challenge to accurately produce the digital and physical model of the missing regions or parts of our cultural heritage objects and restore damaged artefacts. The typical manual restoration can become a tedious and error-prone process; also can cause secondary damage to the relics. Therefore, in this paper, the automatic digital application process of 3D laser modelling of arte
We demonstrate the results of a mathematical model for investigation the nonlinear Stimulated Brillouin Scattering (SBS), which can be employed to achieve high optical amplifier. The SBS is created by interaction between the incident We demonstrate the results of a mathematical model for investigation the nonlinear Stimulated Brillouin Scattering (SBS), which can be employed to achieve high optical amplifier. The SBS is created by interaction between the incident light and the acoustic vibration fiber. The design criteria and the amplification characteristic of the Brillouin amplifier is demonstrated and discussed for fiber Brillouin amplifier using different pump power with different fiber length. The results show, high Brillouin gain can
... Show Morein this paper, we study and investigate a simple donor-acceptor model for charge transfer formation using a quantum transition theory. The transfer parameters which enhanced the charge transfer and the rate of the charge transfer have been calculated. Then, we study the net charge transfer through interface of Cu/F8 contact devices and evaluate all transfer coefficients. The charge transfer rate of transfer processes is found to be dominated in the low orientation free energy and increased a little in decreased potential at interface comparison to the high potential at interface. The increased transition energy results in increasing the orientation of Cu to F8. The transfer in the system was more active when the system has large driving for
... Show MoreThe textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi
... Show MoreFive sites were chosen to the north of Babil Governorate in order to identify the limnological features and the impact of the Hindiya Dam during 2019. Site2 was located near the dam to reflect the ecological features of this site, whereas other sites, S1 was located at the upstream of the dam as a control site. Moreover, the two other sites S3 and S4 were located down the dam. The results of the study showed a close correlation between air and water temperature at all sites. Also there were significant differences in average of thirteen out of eighteen water parameters.Water temperature, total alkalinity, bicarbonate, DO, POS, TH and Mg+2 ions decreased from 22.76˚C, 203.33 mg/L,
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