Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Potentially inappropriate prescribing is the prescribing of a medication that may cause more harm than benefit, the elderly population aged 65 years or older is more prone to potentially inappropriate prescribing because of alterations in their physiology, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics as well as polypharmacy and comorbidities, Beers list is a screening tool that help doctors to detect potentially inappropriate prescribing in geriatric patients and is designed to solve this problem, the aim of this study is to measure the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing among psychiatric patients using the Beers criteria as an assessment tool and find the relationship between duration of hospitalization, comorbidities and pol
... Show MoreThis paper set forth the spatial suitability of the informal settlement supposed to be distributed by the Iraqis government to poor people. The Iraqi government identified 9 locations of informal settlement in Baghdad city and acceptance it as a reality as a help for them to getting home. In this paper I discovered the suitability of those locations which one will be suitable more than others for living. The analysis process was applied using the GIS environment – spatial analysis. According to the results, It has been identified as the most important measures to identify which one of these areas suitable for development for housing by using some criteria (Distance from the city center, Proximity from transport routes, Proximity of high v
... Show MoreIn this research, the problem of ambiguity of the data for the project of establishing the typical reform complex in Basrah Governorate was eliminated. The blurry of the data represented by the time and cost of the activities was eliminated by using the Ranking function and converting them into normal numbers. Scheduling and managing the Project in the Critical Pathway (CPM) method to find the project completion time in normal conditions in the presence of non-traditional relationships between the activities and the existence of the lead and lag periods. The MS Project was used to find the critical path. The results showed that the project completion time (1309.5) dinars and the total cost has reached (33113017769) dinars and the
... Show Moren this paper, we formulate three mathematical models using spline functions, such as linear, quadratic and cubic functions to approximate the mathematical model for incoming water to some dams. We will implement this model on dams of both rivers; dams on the Tigris are Mosul and Amara while dams on the Euphrates are Hadetha and Al-Hindya.
The goal of the extant revision was to explore the influence of caffeic acid (CA) extracted from Arctium lappa L. on lipid profile and histology of aorta in rats . Analytical study demonstrated a high percentage of both chlorogenic and caffeic acid in the 80 % methanol extract of the aerial parts (leaves and stems) of Arctium lappa L. from the family Asteraceace. Hypolipidemic activity of caffeic acid was studied against cholesterol induced hypercholesterolemia in Wistar albino rats for thirty days. Rats were separated into normal group (A), hypercholesterolemic positive controller group (B). While, the rest three groups (C, D and E) attended as hypercholesterol
... Show MoreTransformations of the actor when acting many characters are the product of joint work between the actor and the director through the instructions and the exercises that facilitate the reach for the desired goal.
The method or way has often been used which is Stanislavsky premises in his work with the actor in the role. The first section consists of two parts under the heading of the actor's work with himself. The two parts are preparing the actor in creative suffering (internal), and in coexistence and embodiment (outside). The second section is the book of the actor's work with the role. The current research aims at identifying the mechanism of the acting performance transformations among many characters of the same actor.
... Show MoreIn this work, the occurrence conditions of both local Bifurcation and persistence were studied, Saddle-node bifurcation appears near fourth point, near the first point, the second point and the third point a transcritical bifurcation occurred but no pitchfork bifurcation happened near any of the four equilibrium points. In addition to study conditions for Hopf-bifurcation near positive stable point that is the fourth point. Besides discuss persistence occurrence as globally property of the food chain of three species include prey, first predator and top predator with impact of toxin in all species and harvesting effect on the predator’s only. Numerical results for the set of hypothe
Several toxigenic cyanobacteria produce the cyanotoxin (microcystin). Being a health and environmental hazard, screening of water sources for the presence of microcystin is increasingly becoming a recommended environmental procedure in many countries of the world. This study was conducted to assess the ability of freshwater cyanobacterial species Westiellopsis prolifica to produce microcystins in Iraqi freshwaters via using molecular and immunological tools. The toxigenicity of W. prolifica was compared via laboratory experiments with other dominant bloom-forming cyanobacteria isolated from the Tigris River: Microcystis aeruginosa, Chroococcus turigidus, Nostoc carneum, and Lyngbya sp. signifi
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