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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees22fr
Study the contrast of thermal expansion behavior for PMMA denture base, single and hybrid reinforced using the thermomechanical analysis technique (TMA)
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 06 2022
Journal Name
Advances In Systems Science And Applications
Stability and Bifurcation of a Delay Cancer Model in the Polluted Environment
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It is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Restructuring of the public industrial sector companies Wayshift to private shareholding companies and mixed (Iraqi experience as a model)
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That the main feature of  the economics many countries in general is a tendency towards defining the role of the public sector in economic activity and the tendency towards encourage the private sector to investment in public projects especially in countries those tendency towards market economy actually.

That increased economic development proven failure in achieving more economic growth both individually in many countries especially developing countries socialist, by researchers this led one way or another to direction of corrective reforms in their economic was one of them in Transformation of public companies into Shareholding companies contributes to the public sector in resources and expertise

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Effects of international variables on the principle of citizenship in Arab countries: "Kuwait as a Model"
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The principle of citizenship has international dimensions that affect the application of the principle, such as the structure of the international system, and the control of the concepts of globalization, international organizations which played an important role in the consolidation of this principle.

The problem of the study revolves around the effects of international variables on the principle of citizenship in Kuwait during the period 1991-2018.

The study used several indicators, such as: the rule of law, achieving the principle of separation of powers, the right to form parties, the application of the law of nationality, and racial discrimination, women's rights, and freedom of expression.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Climate change and dust storms in Iraq / 'Baghdad', case study
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A dust storm in Iraq is a climatic phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions . The frequency of the occurrence has increased drastically in the last decade and it is increasing continuously .Baghdad city like the rest of Iraq is suffering from the significant increase in dust storms . In this research , the study of the phenomenon of dust storms for all types (Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed) .The statement of the impact of climate change on this phenomenon to Baghdad station  for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the phenomenon of storms and cli

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use Of the Bayesian Method and Restricted Maximum Likelihood in estimating of mixed Linear Components with random effects model with practical application.
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In this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which  has

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Wild Plant Species Grown in Wadi Al – Tib Region North East of Al – Ammara, Iraq, as Indicators of Heavy Metals Accumulation
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The current study included, studying the ability of eight genera of plants belong to Brassicaceae family, Brassica tournifortii, Cakile Arabica, Capsella bursa – pastoris,Carrichtera annua, Diplotaxis acris, Diplotaxis haru , Eruca sativa and Erucaria hispanica to accumulate ten heavy metals Cadmium, Chromium , Copper, Mercury, Manganese ,Nickel ,Lead ,and Zinc . Plant leaves samples were collected from Al-Tib area during spring of 2021.The data demonstrated that, the highest conc. of Cd was 2.7 mg/kg in Diplotaxis acris leaves and lower value was 0.3 mg/kg in Cakile Arabica leaves. For Co, the highest conc.was 1.3 mg/kg in Capsella bursa – pastoris leaves, whereas the lower value was 0.5 mg/kg in Cakile arabica leaves. As for Cr ele

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Al-mansour Journal /issue( 22 )
A Thematic Reading of John Bunyan's The Pilgrim's Progress with Introductory References to Islam in English Literature
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The importance of this study lies in shedding the light on the impact of Islam and Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) on the western culture and English literature in particular. While some writers were looking at Islam as a dangerous element, others were completely taken by the oriental spirit of Arabic and Islamic culture and glorifying it. Writers from Chaucer to later ones mostly make references to this impact showing how vast was the gap of misunderstanding between the east and the West. Thus, this study aims at breaking the barrier between East and West in its three sections as it introduces the meaning of Islam and its common features with other religions in the first section. The second section briefly presents writers’ reflecti

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Designing Primers with a Plant Signal Peptide to Enhance the Expression of GBA1 in Transgenic Soybean Plants
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Transgenic plants offer advantages for the manufacture of recombinant proteins with terminal
mannose residues on their glycan chains. So plants are chosen as source of pharmaceutical products and for
the development of alternative expression systems to produce recombinant lysosomal enzymes. In the
present study the sequence of the natural cDNA encoding for the human lysosomal enzyme
glucocerebrosidase (GCD) was modified to enhance its expression in soybean plants. The glucocerebrosidase
gene signal peptide was substituted with that signal peptide for the Arabidopsis thaliana basic endochitinase
gene to support the co-translational translocation into the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and the storage
vacuol

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