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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Populism in the Palestinian political discourse The Fatah and Hamas movements are a model
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Receipt Date:10/11/2021 Acceptance Date:29/12/2021 Publication Date:31/12/2021

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The study aimed to clarify the conceptual explanations and the theoretical rooting of the concept of the populist phenomenon. And explore the political and cultural implications and connotations contained in populist political discourse. And to stand on the foundations and meanings on w

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuation on the budget Deficit base in Iraq for the period (2003-2020)
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Abstract

                 The research dealt with a studying the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the rules of financial discipline, which is the rule of budget deficit in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2020) as it is one of the quarterly economies that rely mainly on volatile oil revenues that fluctuate with oil prices in global markets, and therefore the general budget suffers. from The state of instability and then the government resorts to borrowing for a long time . this deficit in the general budget and increase the debt burden in the public debt.The research aim to measure and study the impact of oil price flu

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 20 2025
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum
A SURVEY OF GASTROPODS IN THE GREENHOUSES OF IRAQ
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The humid and warm conditions in greenhouses provide an excellent environment for pests’ living conditions, and therefore, they provide ideal medium for alien introductions. Molluscs are among the most significant pests that infest plastic covered greenhouses. To identify and report their mollusc species, 23 greenhouses in Iraq were surveyed between March 2023 and April 2024. Of these, 11 were found to be infested with snails. A total of 158 specimens were collected and morphologically identified to seven species: Monacha obstructa (L. Pfeiffer, 1842), Eobania vermiculata (O.F. Müller, 1774), Xeropicta krynickii (Krynicki, 1833), Rumina decollata (Linnaeus, 1758), Polygyra cereolus (Megerle Von Mühlfeld, 1818), Cochlicella barba

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 29 2020
Journal Name
Complexity
Training and Testing Data Division Influence on Hybrid Machine Learning Model Process: Application of River Flow Forecasting
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The hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2008
Journal Name
2008 First International Conference On The Applications Of Digital Information And Web Technologies (icadiwt)
Hybrid canonical genetic algorithm and steepest descent algorithm for optimizing likelihood estimators of ARMA (1, 1) model
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This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 22 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-farahidi's Arts
Artificial Intelligence Tools in Literary Text Analysis: An Applied Study Using Voyant Tool: The Poem “I have now a Rifle” by Nizar Qabbani as a Model
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In recent years, literary studies have witnessed a remarkable shift towards employing digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence tools, in analyzing literary texts and exploring their linguistic and semantic structures. This trend has provided researchers with new possibilities for understanding texts in quantitative and qualitative ways that transcend traditional methods based solely on critical reading. The current research aims to introduce professors and students of Arabic to artificial intelligence tools that contribute to the analysis of literary texts, focusing on exploring their mechanisms for studying style, meaning, structure, and emotion. It also seeks to highlight the most prominent challenges facing researchers

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Psychological Distress in Parents of Autistic Children in Baghdad City
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Objectives: The study aims to: (1) assess psychological distress in parents of autistic children, (2) identify the
relationship between psychological distress and parents' socio-demographic characteristics such as (age, marital
status, relationship with child, educational level and monthly income) and (3) identify the relationship between
parent's distress and some of children' socio-demographic characteristics such as (gender, age, birth order and
mean number of children).
Methodology: A descriptive–analytical study that was carried out from December 12th, 2011 to May 1st, 2012.
on a purposive (non- probability) sample of 120 parents (father and mother) who have children with autism and
send their children to the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Oil Sector in Iraq (Reality and Prospects) Economic Analysis
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   The oil sector in Iraq suffered from several difficulties led to the decline and reduction of oil production and the deterioration of refineries and transport pipeline status in addition to the weakness of the technology side and the prevalence of financial and administrative corruption besides the high costs of rehabilitation of the oil sector and also administrative and institutional problems still ongoing. 

 In spite of Iraq's possession of vast oil wealth allows him to play an important role in the international energy market، he is still under the level. The production of oil doesn'<

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Publication Date
Wed May 18 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Music Jawq military in Iraq: زينب صبحي عبد البياتي
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Was and military music still in Iraq whatever tributary of Music, where contributed Brphi Iraqi music musicians, authors and composers of musicians skilled and qualified teachers, was, and still have a big role in the growth and prosperity and progress of contemporary Iraqi music through active and vital role and make a lot of musical tenders excellence in various military and civilian walks of life whether it be in the days of war or peace.As it is the military music schools and the main source of the most important in the education of these machines and training. Therefore occupies the military musicians in Iraq prestigious and important, particularly in the Iraqi National Symphony Orchestra started the forefront of the musical instrum

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Privatization Thesis and its trends in Iraq after 2003
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The concept of privatization is built on the basis of the transfer of assets and services of the public sector to the private sector this concept has appeared in the eighties of the last century whene the high oil prices took place and recession solution swept the world Which called for the freedom of the market and left the room for the private sector to take the initiatine in economic activity.         Both the IMF have   adopted this thesis in their programs of the structural adjustment in light of external and internal factors helped to Create the conditions to accept thesis that under the pretext of achieving a number of economic goals.

In Iraq in spite of

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