Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
The aim of this research is to determine how well the Cubing Technique affects the Iraqi EFL students' composition writing, vocabulary, and meta-cognitive awareness of writing strategies. The sample of (64) secondary-school female students in the fifth grade is drawn from two classrooms and split into two equal groups: the experimental group and the control group, each of which consists of (32) students. A quasi-experimental design is applied. The performance test and Meta-cognitive Writing Strategies questionnaire are given as a pre-test for equalizing the two groups after ensuring their validity and reliability. Then, they are administrated as a posttest in both groups. According to the results, the si
... Show MoreIn this study, a bioadhesive dosage form of eoconazole nitrate for vaginal delivery was designed using a combination of bioadhesive polymers: Carbopol 941 p and sodium carboxymethylcellulose or methylcellulose in different ratios. The bioadhesive strength was evaluated by measuring the force required to detach the tablet from sheep vaginal mucosal membrane. It was found that the bioadhesive force was directly proportional to Carbopol 941 p content in the different formulae. The formulae were tested for their swelling behavior using agar gel plate method. The results showed that formulae containing a combination of Carbopol 941 p and sodium carboxymethylcellulose had greater swelling index
... Show MoreLibraries, information centers, and everything related to organizing and preparing information need to be periodically re-evaluated in order to stand on the level of quality, which means improving the general reality of these institutions to ensure sufficient satisfaction from beneficiaries of the services provided. This is what was worked on in this research, as one of the most important quality standards in libraries and information centers, LibQUAL+®, was applied in one of the most important and oldest central university libraries, namely the Central Library of the University of Baghdad at its two locations, Al-Jadriya and Al-Waziriya. The sample of beneficiaries to whom the questionnaire was distributed reached 75 beneficiaries distrib
... Show MoreThe research aims to improve the effectiveness of internal control system according to a model COSO, by identifying the availability of system components according to the model and then improve the effectiveness of each component by focusing on areas for improvement in each component, as it was addressed to a model COSO and then Maamth with the environment, the current Iraqi by introducing some improvements on the form of some mechanisms of corporate governance of the Council of Directors, and senior management, the Audit Committee, Committee appointments, especially that supplies application available in the laws and legislation, the current Iraqi, taking into consideration to make some
... Show MoreThe general budget is usually linked to the role of the state in public life and economic activity, whether this role is neutral or interventionist and thus reflects the general objectives that the state seeks to achieve.
for importance of the public budget in clarifying the image of the political state philosophy and its objectives it seeks to achieve on the one hand and clarifying the degree and rank it occupies in the ladder of development among the other countries. This study is intended to highlight the concepts of the general budget and how its concept has evolved since the Middle Ages. Of the importance of the general budget in Iraq was not based on scientific and objective and then the study
... Show MoreIn light of this, attention should be paid to tax reform as part of a comprehensive economic reform program. Therefore, the research started from the problem of the weak efficiency of the tax reform process in the General Authority for Taxation, as well as the need to know the addition of new taxes or increase taxes.The research aims study the relative importance of each disabled person, whether organizational, human, financial, legislative or technical. The research led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which were that the financial obstacles occupy the highest importance of the other obstacles and for the success of the tax reform, the material resources must be provided in order to provide the n
... Show MoreAn epidemiological study in Al-Mahmmodiya (50 km south Baghdad) to investigate a possible vector of Leishmaniasis were applied .This region is considered as a foci of Leishmaniasisaccording to the health association statistics. CDC light traps were used to collect the insects nightly. Insects were collected by Indoor application as human dwellings and animal shelters and Outdoor application as rodent's barrows and field trees. Sand flies were transported to the laboratory, isolated and identified according to the identification keys in Tropical Biological Researches Unit at the Collage of Science / University of Baghdad. Must of the collected sand flies were belonging to three species PhlebotomuspapatasiScopoli(45%), PhlebotomusalexandriSin
... Show MoreBarhi dates fruit are one of the most important date palm cultivars which are some of their properties they are mostly eaten and sold at the khalal stage when it has become yellow compared with rutab stage. At this stage the fruit loses its astringency and becomes sweet and best texture, therefore. High moisture content and rapid ripening of Barhi dates shorten their shelf life, as well the Khalal stage lasts for about 4 weeks until the ripening of the fruits begins and transfer to rutab stage. In the present study, Barhi dates packaging in the first by common air - packaging and
second by Modified atmosphere packaging, MAP A (5% O2 + 20% CO2) and MAP B (40%O2+20%CO2) and stored for 30 days at different temperatures 5 and 20 °C, re
Most countries in the world particularly developing countries, including Iraq, facing extremely dangerous problem with social and political dimensions, which is the emergence of the food crisis problem ,the decrease in domestic food production in Iraq isn't meet the needs of its population food, due to the fact that the agricultural sector suffers from multiple natural ,economic and human problems .It is still below the level required to meet the needs of the population of food ,since food at the forefront of priorities needed by the human . This represents indispensable basic necessity , so the responsibility of its availability permanently in appropriate&nb
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