Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Abstract 

          The research the impact of the application of some of the production system tools in the specified time, which can be adapted in the service sectors (banking sector) over the improvement and increase the quality of banking services, and highlights the research problem in the low quality of banking services provided to customers because of the reliance on traditional banking systems in the provision of services Because of the lack keep pace with global developments in the banking industry, and the goal of research is to clarify the applicability of the production system in the time specified in the service sector and th

This study aimed to assess the possible association of oxytocin (OXT) gene with reproductive traits in two groups of Awassi ewes that differ in their reproductive potentials. Sheep were genotyped using PCR—single-stranded conformation polymorphism approach. Three genotypes were detected in exon 2, CC, CA, and AA, and a novel SNP was identified with a missense effect on oxytocin (c.188C > A → p.Arg55Leu). A significant (p < 0.01) association of p.Arg55Leu with the twinning rate was found as ewes with AA and CA genotypes exhibited, respectively a lower twinning ratio than those with the wild-type CC genotype. The deleterious impact of p.Arg55Leu was demonstrated by all in silico tools that were utilized to assess the effect of this varian

This study was conducted to know some Immune responses in women with vaginal candidias is by Candidia species. Hemoglubin (Hb) was decreased significantly in patient women comparing with control group. The differential count of Blood cells revealed that neutrophils and monocytcs were increased significantly in patient women comparing with control group. The percentage of the Phagocytosis index was decreased significantly in patient women (66.45 + 15.05) comparing with control group (73.72 + 3.77) and the T- lymphocytes were decreased also in patient women (57.75 + 18.787) comparing with control group (74.25 + 7.759).

The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

Construction of photographed bullying scale of kindergarteners was the aim of this study. The study conducted to answer the raised question, could the bullying among kindergarteners be measured?. A total of (200) boy and girl were selected from city of Baghdad to be the sample of the study. The scale composed of (27) item with colored pictures. It takes about (15) minuets to answer the whole scale items. SPSS tools were used to process the collected data. The result showed that the bullying among kindergarteners could be measured.

‎ This research aims to estimate stock returns, according to the ‎Rough Set Theory ‎approach, ‎test ‎its effectiveness and accuracy in predicting stock returns and their potential in the ‎field of ‎financial ‎markets, and rationalize investor decisions. The research sample is totaling (10) ‎companies traded at Iraq Stock Exchange. The results showed a remarkable ‎ ‎Rough Set Theory application in data reduction, contributing to the rationalization of ‎investment ‎decisions. The most prominent conclusions are the capability of rough set theory ‎in ‎dealing with financial data and applying it for forecasting stock ‎returns.‎The ‎research provides those interested in investing stocks in financial

Color in the fantasy child theater represents a psychological and sematic symbol in conveying the connotations and clarifying meanings being an exciting and clarifying means. The researcher felt the necessity of shedding light on the color semiotics in the theater shows presented for children which are characterized by fantasy atmospheres and the ability to employ the color semiotics that goes along with the nature of the Iraqi theater shows through the following question: 

What is the extent of the representation of the color significance of the mark shown in the fantasy theatrical show presented to the Iraqi child?

The aim of the research is:

     Exposing the color utilization and its s

Total quality management  considers one of the modern scientific entrances  which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have  in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated.                          &n

The parametric programming considered as type of sensitivity analysis. In this research concerning to study the effect of the variations on linear programming model (objective function coefficients and right hand side) on the optimal solution. To determine the parameter (θ) value (-5≤ θ ≤5).Whereas the result، the objective function equal  zero and the decision variables are non basic، when the parameter (θ = -5).The objective function value increases when the parameter (θ= 5) and the decision variables are basic، with the except of X_24, X₃₄.Whenever the parameter value increase, the objectiv