Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstract
Natural gas is characterized by features that made from it a fuel and a raw material for many industries. Deepening its position as a favorite fossil supplier between other types of fossil fuel is the efficiency, diversity of its uses, low costs and compatibility with the environment which leads to increasing of its uses then increased global demand. So, the natural gas must take its place as an important resource in Iraq and participate the oil in the economic development process of building and financing of the general budget.
Iraq is planning to continue of increasing the export capacity of raw oil to meet ambitious production targets emanating from the mai
... Show MoreIraqi insurance market need to develop products and to find new insurance policies to cover the damages of the violence and political commotions dangers and to meet the needs of the proposers.
The global insurance companies recently issued such policies to pay the losses wich caused by the violent political acts of vandalism suffered by the property and investments wich estimated billions of dollars.
... Show MoreAt the heart of every robust economy is a vital banking system. The functional banking system can effectively perform several functions such as mobilizing savings, allocating credit, monitoring managers, transforming risks, and facilitating the financial transactions. This paper aims to measure the impact of banking system development on economic growth in Iraq. Credit to private sector divided by GDP used as a proxy of banking development. Real per capita GDP used as a proxy of economic growth. By using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the paper finds that the undeveloped Iraqi banking system could not promote economic growth in the country. Therefore, a variety of policies need to be taken to spur the role of bankin
... Show MoreDue to the intensity of competition between economic units that run the trade in durable goods had to pay a lot of these companies to follow the new selling methods aimed at attracting customers to be able to increase its sales and thereby increase their profits , these methods are installment sales, which had been in great demand by the customers with limited income, who provides them with the possibility of possession and use of such goods and to postpone the full amount of the payment to the seller, This transaction sales have grown even became installment sales system at the present time of the common types of sales transactions and deployed a lot in our environment and in many sectors of the market, and in some cases m
... Show MoreAgricultural loans play an important role in the growth and stimulation of agricultural investment opportunities in Iraq, as well as the sustainability and development of existing agricultural projects. The agricultural sector is characterized by the specific conditions of seasonal production and fluctuations in production conditions, which makes the situation of uncertainty more acute in this sector, the need for any agricultural project for financing is urgent and continuous if it wants to continue production and development at all stages. The study proved the impact of agricultural loans in increasing investment and agricultural production at specific times, However, the fluctuation of funding
... Show MoreThe research aims at integrating the disclosure of the business models with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information. To achieve this, the elements of the business model should be identified and disclosed, and then study the possibility of integrating the disclosure of the business model with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information.
To achieve this objective, the research was based on the indicators of disclosure of the business model of the International Accounting Standards Board to measure the disclosure of the business model.
The research reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which were as follows:
Fi
... Show MoreObjectives: To determine the level of knowledge regarding drugs addiction among paramedical staff; and to
identify the association between the level of knowledge and their socio-demographic variable.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was Conducted in Baghdad on Staff for the period from 1st June,
2016 to30th September, 2016 . The sample included 510 Health professionals . There are 9 sectors in center
of Baghdad , 5 of them in Al- Kurkh side of the city and 4 in Al-Russafa side. The sample was selected from
49 primary health care centers and 8 public hospitals through a multi-stage sample using a simple random
sampling technique. The information was collected through the design of a questionnaire whose stability and<
The textbook is the primary means of creativity and thinking, which has a major role in the development of the readership and mental abilities of the student. It is the basic tool in education in Iraq for the teacher and the student, which cannot be dispensed in any educational program. The current study aimed at the book of the biology of the sixth grade of science in Iraq (comparative study). It was compared to the book of biology for the twelve grade in the Kingdom of Jordan to identify the ratio of similarity and differences between them, in addition, to identify the weaknesses in the Iraq curriculum and developing appropriate solutions and suggestions to address them. The sample was represented with books of biology (six-science cla
... Show MoreThe subject of the evolution of fire insurance of the hottest topics accidents, because it falls within the commercial insurance, as its importance is reflected for being a security source and contentment of the insured person and so it is worth pointing out the importance of fire insurance in enterprises and organizations of all kinds, because of the guarantee of its assets from meridian as well as protection from the effects of the fire therefore ensure continuity in the performance of their activities
Today, the role of cloud computing in our day-to-day lives is very prominent. The cloud computing paradigm makes it possible to provide demand-based resources. Cloud computing has changed the way that organizations manage resources due to their robustness, low cost, and pervasive nature. Data security is usually realized using different methods such as encryption. However, the privacy of data is another important challenge that should be considered when transporting, storing, and analyzing data in the public cloud. In this paper, a new method is proposed to track malicious users who use their private key to decrypt data in a system, share it with others and cause system information leakage. Security policies are also considered to be int
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