Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va
... Show MoreSince the widespread use of the concept of human security in 1994, and as stated in the report of human development (UNDP) issued by the United Nations Development Programmer,And framed it with multiple dimensions of political, economical, social and cultural. This concept has became beyond the state and its security ,and covered all what, can threaten human life and humanitarian groups, according to the humanitarian needs in the following aspects: The economic, the food,health,environmental , individual, community and the political aspect,which totally means ,the disability of the security traditional perspective to deal with these issues.The achievement of human security,that handles the maintenance of human dignity for meeting their b
... Show MoreAbstract:
Rabi’a tribe lived on the land of Euphrates since the first century of the
Christ. Then that land becomes her homeland. The Persians tried many times
to drive her away from that land, but with out result.
In the course of time Rabi’a become more knowledgeable of Persia.
This tribe proved her love and sanctification to the land of Euphrates, in the
battle of Dhyqar.
Rabi’a converted to Islam quickly and helped the Muslims to conquer
Iraq with a big number of fighters in many battles like al- Qadisyyah. That
influenced the anger of Mudriat Arab tribes who were their old enemies.
Mudriat tribes did their efforts to reduce the importance of Rabi’a because of
some its branches were among of t
The developing countries can be distinguished by spatial disparities and by this a wide gap between urban and rural settlements were produced as well as the appearance of primate cities. The effect of spatial development as a dynamic and continuous process can be perceived in the state of population distribution inside settlements inter and intra regions as well as the hierarchy of urban settlements according to time series. The research proved that the improvement judgment of the structure of the urban system using Gene factor is not accurate because it cannot be accounted for the internal components of the system which make a contrariety between the whole judgment (country) and partial components (Provinces including Sulaimaniy
... Show MoreStudies and scientific research conducted in the field of communication have shown that broadcasting has a clear impact on the ideas, attitudes and behavior of the masses if it is better used in making the media message studied.
The role of this means is not only to present opinions and ideas, but also to influence trends by supporting or changing them. This is of course a matter for the nature of the content in terms of its formulation and the way it is prepared and presented. The power and appeal of a radio message is not complete by simply creating content without creating a distinctive design; and to what extent this content depends on the logic and psychology of persuasion.
The conviction of the cont
... Show MoreThis research is considered a simple attempt and effort which is it first and last target is to point at the procedures of the taxes account that aims to reduce the taxes from the persons and give free to the person who estimates the tax to practice what comes from the competent authorities to describe the person who estimates the tax and not an accountant who practice the accountant procedures which are imposed on him by the annual terms from higher administrations , So he can not evaluate state of the person who pay the tax , and he might be dissatisfied with his job , because his role can’t be activated from the general foundation taxes.
And so , this research includes four fields:-
... Show MoreThe research aims to derive the efficient industrial plans for Al – shaheed public company under risk by using Target MOTAD as a linear alternative model for the quadratic programming models.
The results showed that there had been a sort of (trade- off) between risk and the expected gross margins. And if the studied company strives to get high gross margin, it should tolerate risk and vice versa. So the management of Al- Shaheed Company to be invited to apply the suitable procedures in the production process, in order to get efficient plans that improves it's performance .
Countries have faced the challenges of high levels of public debt and seek to define the optimum limits to reduce risks to which the financial system can be exposed and its impact on the economy as a whole. Hence the importance of research in studying the impact of internal and external public debt components on indicators of stability of the financial system for the period 2005-2017 for the purpose of knowing the extent of the financial stability indicators response to the high level of the public debt from its optimum ratio, as the aim of the research is to estimate and analyze the dynamic relationship of short and long term between the components of public debt and indicators of financial stability using the (ARDL) model that
... Show MoreThe population studies are one of the difficult tasks facing the world in all periods. most of the researchers and who have relationship to population policies and development plans, may have succumbed to the idea that the population problem is based and confined mainly in the rate of increase in population, or the so – called population explosion, and not the content because of its pressure on resources and there is no problem of population if the resources are available and therefore no need for the development and implementation of population policies in any way . While the population policies here should take a range of general and comprehensive in every respect to population and demographic phenomena distribution, not only
... Show MoreWas and military music still in Iraq whatever tributary of Music, where contributed Brphi Iraqi music musicians, authors and composers of musicians skilled and qualified teachers, was, and still have a big role in the growth and prosperity and progress of contemporary Iraqi music through active and vital role and make a lot of musical tenders excellence in various military and civilian walks of life whether it be in the days of war or peace.As it is the military music schools and the main source of the most important in the education of these machines and training. Therefore occupies the military musicians in Iraq prestigious and important, particularly in the Iraqi National Symphony Orchestra started the forefront of the musical instrum
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