The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w
... Show MoreThe research aims to improve the effectiveness of internal control system according to a model COSO, by identifying the availability of system components according to the model and then improve the effectiveness of each component by focusing on areas for improvement in each component, as it was addressed to a model COSO and then Maamth with the environment, the current Iraqi by introducing some improvements on the form of some mechanisms of corporate governance of the Council of Directors, and senior management, the Audit Committee, Committee appointments, especially that supplies application available in the laws and legislation, the current Iraqi, taking into consideration to make some
... Show MoreThis study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator’s refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points’ local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the per
... Show MoreIn this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system.
... Show MoreScheduling considered being one of the most fundamental and essential bases of the project management. Several methods are used for project scheduling such as CPM, PERT and GERT. Since too many uncertainties are involved in methods for estimating the duration and cost of activities, these methods lack the capability of modeling practical projects. Although schedules can be developed for construction projects at early stage, there is always a possibility for unexpected material or technical shortages during construction stage. The objective of this research is to build a fuzzy mathematical model including time cost tradeoff and resource constraints analysis to be applied concurrently. The proposed model has been formulated using fuzzy the
... Show MoreThe Electro-Fenton oxidation process is one of the essential advanced electrochemical oxidation processes used to treat Phenol and its derivatives in wastewater. The Electro-Fenton oxidation process was carried out at an ambient temperature at different current density (2, 4, 6, 8 mA/cm2) for up to 6 h. Sodium Sulfate at a concentration of 0.05M was used as a supporting electrolyte, and 0.4 mM of Ferrous ion concentration (Fe2+) was used as a catalyst. The electrolyte cell consists of graphite modified by an electrodepositing layer of PbO2 on its surface as anode and carbon fiber modified with Graphene as a cathode. The results indicated that Phenol concentration decreases with an increase in current dens
... Show MoreRemoving Congo red (CR) is critical in wastewater treatment. We introduce a combination of electrocoagulation (EC) and electro-oxidation (EO) to address the elimination of CR. We also discuss the deposition of triple oxides (Cu–Mn–Ni) simultaneously on both anodic and cathodic graphite electrodes at constant current density. These electrodes efficiently worked as anodes in the EC-EO system. The EC-CO combination eliminated around 98 % of the CR dye and about 95 % of the Chemical Oxygen demand (COD), and similar results were obtained with the absence of NaCl. Thus, EC-EO is a promising technique to remove CR in an environmentally friendly pathway.