The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are: (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE).
We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on t
... Show MoreThis research deals with unusual approach for analyzing the Simple Linear Regression via Linear Programming by Two - phase method, which is known in Operations Research: “O.R.”. The estimation here is found by solving optimization problem when adding artificial variables: Ri. Another method to analyze the Simple Linear Regression is introduced in this research, where the conditional Median of (y) was taken under consideration by minimizing the Sum of Absolute Residuals instead of finding the conditional Mean of (y) which depends on minimizing the Sum of Squared Residuals, that is called: “Median Regression”. Also, an Iterative Reweighted Least Squared based on the Absolute Residuals as weights is performed here as another method to
... Show MoreThe objective of this work is to study the influence of end milling cutting process parameters, tool material and geometry on multi-response outputs for 4032 Al-alloy. This can be done by proposing an approach that combines Taguchi method with grey relational analysis. Three cutting parameters have been selected (spindle speed, feed rate and cut depth) with three levels for each parameter. Three tools with different materials and geometry have been also used to design the experimental tests and runs based on matrix L9. The end milling process with several output characteristics is solved using a grey relational analysis. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the major influencing parameters on multi-objective response w
... Show MoreIn this research, a mathematical model of tumor treatment by radiotherapy is studied and a new modification for the model is proposed as well as introducing the check for the suggested modification. Also the stability of the modified model is analyzed in the last section.
Photo citation request in examples Of ascetic poetry in the first Abbasid era
The melting duration in the photovoltaic/phase-change material (PV/PCM) system is a crucial parameter for thermal energy management such that its improvement can realize better energy management in respect to thermal storage capabilities, thermal conditions, and the lifespan of PV modules. An innovative and efficient technique for improving the melting duration is the inclusion of an exterior metal foam layer in the PV/PCM system. For detailed investigations of utilizing different metal foam configurations in terms of their convective heat transfer coefficients, the present paper proposes a newly developed mathematical model for the PV/PCM–metal foam assembly that can readily be implemented with a wide range of operating condition
... Show MoreThe aim of the thesis is to estimate the partial and inaccessible population groups, which is a field study to estimate the number of drug’s users in the Baghdad governorate for males who are (15-60) years old.
Because of the absence of data approved by government institutions, as well as the difficulty of estimating the numbers of these people from the traditional survey, in which the respondent expresses himself or his family members in some cases. In these challenges, the NSUM Network Scale-Up Method Is mainly based on asking respondents about the number of people they know in their network of drug addicts.
Based on this principle, a statistical questionnaire was designed to
... Show MoreThe aim of this paper to find Bayes estimator under new loss function assemble between symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, namely, proposed entropy loss function, where this function that merge between entropy loss function and the squared Log error Loss function, which is quite asymmetric in nature. then comparison a the Bayes estimators of exponential distribution under the proposed function, whoever, loss functions ingredient for the proposed function the using a standard mean square error (MSE) and Bias quantity (Mbias), where the generation of the random data using the simulation for estimate exponential distribution parameters different sample sizes (n=10,50,100) and (N=1000), taking initial
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