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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining ACE-2 Level and Some Relevant Biochemical Parameters and studying the effect of Gender in Iraqi Diabetic Patients with Glomeruli and Renal Tubules Fibrosis as Early Prediction Marker
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     Diabetic kidney disease is an illness of the glomerulus that interferes with the glomerular filtration barrier (GFB), which is worked to enable kidney to selective purification of water and solutes in addition to limiting the movement of large macromolecules such as albumin. In the glomerular endothelium, mesangial cells, foot cells, and the brush border of the proximal tubules, ACE-2 is expressed and that the kidneys represent the highest-expressing region of this enzyme. Thus, the current study aimed to evaluate ACE-2 level in this case compared to healthy condition. The study Conducted with 120 male and female ranging in age (30-65) years old. Ninety patients with type 2 diabetes subdivided into three groups on the basis of A

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
New Weighted Synthetic Oversampling Method for Improving Credit Card Fraud Detection
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The use of credit cards for online purchases has significantly increased in recent years, but it has also led to an increase in fraudulent activities that cost businesses and consumers billions of dollars annually. Detecting fraudulent transactions is crucial for protecting customers and maintaining the financial system's integrity. However, the number of fraudulent transactions is less than legitimate transactions, which can result in a data imbalance that affects classification performance and bias in the model evaluation results. This paper focuses on processing imbalanced data by proposing a new weighted oversampling method, wADASMO, to generate minor-class data (i.e., fraudulent transactions). The proposed method is based on th

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Approximated Methods for Linear Delay Differential Equations Using Weighted Residual Methods
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The main work of this paper is devoted to a new technique of constructing approximated solutions for linear delay differential equations using the basis functions power series functions with the aid of Weighted residual methods (collocations method, Galerkin’s method and least square method).

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Fuzzy-assignment Model by Using Linguistic Variables
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      This work addressed the assignment problem (AP) based on fuzzy costs, where the objective, in this study, is to minimize the cost. A triangular, or trapezoidal, fuzzy numbers were assigned for each fuzzy cost. In addition, the assignment models were applied on linguistic variables which were initially converted to quantitative fuzzy data by using the Yager’sorankingi method. The paper results have showed that the quantitative date have a considerable effect when considered in fuzzy-mathematic models.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis of Gold Nanoparticles by using Batch Method and Study its Antibacterial Activity
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The research involves preparing gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) and studying the factors that influence the shape, sizes and distribution ratio of the prepared particles according to Turkevich method. These factors include (reaction temperature, initial heating, concentration of gold ions, concentration and quantity of added citrate, reaction time and order of reactant addition). Gold nanoparticles prepared were characterized by the following measurements: UV-Visible spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The average size of gold nanoparticles was formed in the range (20 -35) nm. The amount of added citrate was changed and studied. In addition, the concentration of added gold ions was changed and the calibration cur

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Solving Fractional Damped Burgers' Equation Approximately by Using The Sumudu Transform (ST) Method
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       In this work, the fractional damped Burger's equation (FDBE) formula    = 0,

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Teaching Using Adey- Shire Model and its Effect in Achievement and Critical Thinking for first intermediate students in Mathematics
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The aim of this research is to measure the effect of Adey- Shire model in the achievement and critical thinking of first intermediate female students in mathematics. The researcher adopted the experimental method with a post-test, the research of sample consists of (60) female students, divided into two groups with (30) students in the experimental group, that studied with Adey- Shire model, and (30) students in the control group who studied in the usual way. The two groups are equivalent in many variables. The researcher makes two tests of multiple choices, the first one is an achievement test consists (30) items and another test was for a critical thinking test with (25) items. The statistical analysis make to both tests is made with s

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first
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The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
New Method for Estimation Mebeverine Hydrochloride Drugs Preparation by a New Analyser: Ayah 6S.X1(WSLEDs)-T.- Two Solar Cells Complied with C.F.I.A
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A sensitivity-turbidimetric method at (0-180o) was used for detn. of mebeverine in drugs by two solar cell and six source  with C.F.I.A.. The method was based on the formation  of  ion pair for the pinkish banana color  precipitate by the reaction of Mebeverine hydrochloride with Phosphotungstic acid. Turbidity was measured via the reflection of incident light that collides on the surface particles of   precipitated at 0-180o. All variables were optimized. The linearity ranged of Mebeverine hydrochloride was 0.05-12.5mmol.L-1, the L.D. (S/N= 3)(3SB) was 521.92 ng/sample depending on dilution for the minimum concentration , with correlation coefficient r = 0.9966while was R.S.D%

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use aggregate slide estimate additive splines estimation for the diagnosis of non-linear composite model self-regression with practical application
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Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines  estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property  to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a

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