The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreAn analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.
This paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient
In this research, the performance of a two kind of membrane was examined to recovering the nutrients (protein and lactose) from the whey produced by the soft cheese industry in the General Company for Food Products inAbo-ghraab.Wheyare treated in two stages, the first including press whey into micron filter made of poly vinylidene difluoride (PVDF) standard plate type 800 kilo dalton, The membrane separates the whey to permeate which represent is the main nutrients and to remove the fat and microorganisms.The second stage is to isolate the protein by using ultra filter made of polyethylsulphone(PES)type plate with a measurement of 10,60 kilo dalton and the recovery of lactose in the form of permeate.
The results showed that the percen
Background: Trastuzumab is a blockbuster monoclonal antibody that has revolutionized the treatment of HER2-positive breast and gastric cancers. With the increasing availability of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies in clinical practice, independent verification of biosimilarity using products sampled from a real-world supply chain is important to assure clinicians and the patients to use these products confidently. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the biosimilarity of AryoTrust, a trastuzumab biosimilar, in comparison with the reference product Herceptin. AryoTrust and Herceptin products were randomly withdrawn from Iraqi hospitals to reflect medicines administered in real clinical settings. Methods: AryoTrust and Hercept
... Show MoreOne of the most important problems in the statistical inference is estimating parameters and Reliability parameter and also interval estimation , and testing hypothesis . estimating two parameters of exponential distribution and also reliability parameter in a stress-strength model.
This parameter deals with estimating the scale parameter and the Location parameter µ , of two exponential distribution ,using moments estimator and maximum likelihood estimator , also we estimate the parameter R=pr(x>y), where x,y are two- parameter independent exponential random variables .
Statistical properties of this distribution and its properti
... Show Morethe main of this paper is to give a comprehensive presentation of estimating methods namely maximum likelihood bayes and proposed methods for the parameter
The study addresses the problem of stagnation and declining economic growth rates in Arab countries since the eighties till today after the progress made by these countries in the sixties of the last century. The study reviews the e
... Show MoreProfit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A
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