The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This study uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to examine the constitutive relationships of the Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) residual tensile strength at elevated temperatures. The objective is to develop an effective model and establish fire performance criteria for concrete structures in fire scenarios. Multilayer networks that employ reactive error distribution approaches can determine the residual tensile strength of GFRP using six input parameters, in contrast to previous mathematical models that utilized one or two inputs while disregarding the others. Multilayered networks employing reactive error distribution technology assign weights to each variable influencing the residual tensile strength of GFRP. Temperatur
... Show MoreBackground: Scientific education aims to be inclusive and to improve students learning achievements, through appropriate teaching and learning. Problem Based Learning (PBL) system, a student centered method, started in the second half of the previous century and is expanding progressively, organizes learning around problems and students learn about a subject through the experience of solving these problems.Objectives:To assess the opinions of undergraduate medical students regarding learning outcomes of PBL in small group teaching and to explore their views about the role of tutors and methods of evaluation. Type of the study: A cross-sectional study.Methods: This study was conducted in Kerbala Medical Colleges among second year students
... Show Moreمفهوم معامل الارتباط كمقياس يربط بين متغيرين هذا يجلب انتباهنا إلى موضوع الإحصاء في كل المستويات. أكثر من ذلك هناك ثلاث نقاط خاصة هي اعتيادياً نشدد عليها كما يأتي:-
(1 معامل الارتباط هو الدليل المعياري والذي قيمته لا تعتمد على قياسات
المتغيرات الأصلية.
(2قيمته تقع في المدى] 1,1-[ .
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... Show MoreMaulticollinearity is a problem that always occurs when two or more predictor variables are correlated with each other. consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with biased estimates results, There are several methods which are proposed to handle this problem including the method To address a problem and method To address a problem , In this research a comparisons are employed between the biased method and unbiased method with Bayesian using Gamma distribution method addition to Ordinary Least Square metho
... Show MoreThe control charts are one of the scientific technical statistics tools that will be used to control of production and always contained from three lines central line and upper, lower lines to control quality of production and represents set of numbers so finally the operating productivity under control or nor than depending on the actual observations. Some times to calculating the control charts are not accurate and not confirming, therefore the Fuzzy Control Charts are using instead of Process Control Charts so this method is more sensitive, accurate and economically for assisting decision maker to control the operation system as early time. In this project will be used set data fr
... Show MoreIn this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method
In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect
... Show MoreThe Log-Logistic distribution is one of the important statistical distributions as it can be applied in many fields and biological experiments and other experiments, and its importance comes from the importance of determining the survival function of those experiments. The research will be summarized in making a comparison between the method of maximum likelihood and the method of least squares and the method of weighted least squares to estimate the parameters and survival function of the log-logistic distribution using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE, IMSE, and this research was applied to real data for breast cancer patients. The results showed that the method of Maximum likelihood best in the case of estimating the paramete
... Show MoreThis study Studied Ministry of Hamdy Al-Buchachy(the first)and explain the features of
this Ministry in a critical time in the history of Iraq. The second world war had began and its
end had reached .The political situation in Iraq is so complicated. The Ministry had made
many things. The Ministry had situated in internal and external complicated time. The
situation in Iraq was so difficult, therefore the recommendor (Abdul-Ilah)asked Hamdy Al-
Bachachy to make be the head of the new governments Al-Bachachy had made irrelevant
government, thus it didn’t last more than three months and the British governorate and of
direct in terference in Iraq who worked to reduce the Iraqi army and the Minister of Defence
refus
This work, deals with Kumaraswamy distribution. Kumaraswamy (1976, 1978) showed well known probability distribution functions such as the normal, beta and log-normal but in (1980) Kumaraswamy developed a more general probability density function for double bounded random processes, which is known as Kumaraswamy’s distribution. Classical maximum likelihood and Bayes methods estimator are used to estimate the unknown shape parameter (b). Reliability function are obtained using symmetric loss functions by using three types of informative priors two single priors and one double prior. In addition, a comparison is made for the performance of these estimators with respect to the numerical solution which are found using expansion method. The
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