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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Ecofriendly Control for Stored-Product Pest, Oryzaephilus surinamensis (Order: Coleoptera, Family: Silvanidae)
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Dates are considered one of the most important foods consumed in Arab countries. Dates are commonly infested with the sawtoothed grain beetle, Oryzaephilus surinamensis. Consequently, the date yield, quantity, and quality (economic value and seed viability) are negatively affected. This study was designed to investigate the effectiveness of air evacuation as eco-friendly and safe control method against adult O. surinamensis. Insects were obtained from the infested date purchased from a private store in sakaka city, Aljouf region, Saudi Arabia. Air evacuation (using a vacuum pump) and food deprivation were applied to O. surinamensis, and insect mortality was observed daily in comparison with the control group (a

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 04 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading
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Abstract<p>This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating Mixture of Linear Regression Models with Application
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 A mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Bioautomation
Model for Prediction of the Weight and Height Measurements of Patients with Disabilities for Diagnosis and Therapy
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Background: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Abstract And Applied Analysis
Dynamical Behaviors of a Fractional-Order Three Dimensional Prey-Predator Model
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In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model is investigated with Holling type III functional response and constant rate harvesting. It is assumed that the middle predator species consumes only the prey species, and the top predator species consumes only the middle predator species. We also prove the boundedness, the non-negativity, the uniqueness, and the existence of the solutions of the proposed model. Then, all possible equilibria are determined, and the dynamical behaviors of the proposed model around the equilibrium points are investigated. Finally, numerical simulations results are presented to confirm the theoretical results and to give a better understanding of the dynami

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Teen-Computer Interaction: Building a Conceptual Model with Thoughts- Emotion-Behaviour
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Teen-Computer Interaction (TeenCI) stands in an infant phase and emerging in positive path. Compared to Human-Computer Interaction (generally dedicated to adult) and Child-Computer Interaction, TeenCI gets less interest in terms of research efforts and publications. This has revealed extensive prospects for researchers to explore and contribute in the region of computer design and evaluation for teen, in specific. As a subclass of HCI and a complementary for CCI, TeenCI that tolerates teen group, should be taken significant concern in the sense of its context, nature, development, characteristics and architecture. This paper tends to discover teen’s emotion contribution as the first attempt towards building a conceptual model for TeenC

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing of the Relationship between the Financial Development, Economic growth, and Poverty in Iraq with the Autoregressive Distributed lag Model framework for the period (1980-2010)
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The developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh Distribution under Type-I Censored Data
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     This paper discusses estimating the two scale parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution for singly type one censored data which is one of the most important Rights censored data, using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLEM) which is one of the most popular and widely used classic methods, based on an iterative procedure such as the Newton-Raphson to find estimated values for these two scale parameters by using real data for COVID-19 was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. The duration of the study was in the interval 4/5/2020 until 31/8/2020 equivalent to 120 days, where the number of patients who entered the (study) hospital with sample size is (n=785). The number o

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Heat Transfer
A tubular solar still integrated with a heat pipe
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Abstract<p>The aim of this work is to explore the thermal performance of a tracked tubular solar still (TSS) with a parabolic trough concentrator in Baghdad (33.27° N, 44.37° E) in September 2022. The present tubular still is distinguished by its hexagonal glass cover. The effect of integrating the TSS with a heat pipe, the still tilt angle (10°, 15°), and the depth of saline water inside the still partitions on the productivity of freshwater are investigated. The results showed that using heat pipe enhances the freshwater productivity by 25%–40% and the efficiency by 25%. For the still integrated with heat pipe, as the water depth is increased from 5.5 to 6.5 cm the productivity of freshwater is incre</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Pushing towards ehealth for iraqi hypertensives: an integrated class association rules into SECI model
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<span lang="EN-GB">This paper highlights the barriers that have led to a delay in the implementation of E-Health services in Iraq. A new framework is proposed to improve the E-Health sector using a SECI model which describes how explicit and tacit knowledge is generated, transferred, and recreated in organizations through main stages (socialization, externalization, combination and internalization). Class association rules (CARs) is integrated to mine the SECI model by extracting related rules which correspond to the medical advice. The proposed framework (SECICAR) can be done through a web portal to assemble healthcare professionals, patients in one environment. SECICAR will be applied to the hypertension community to show th

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