The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
To investigate the role of IL-6 and IL-8 in the immune-regulatory mechanisms involved in the recurrent spontaneous abortion of the first trimester of pregnancy. Serum level of IL-6 and IL-8 were determined in 25 women of age (20-35) years who had a spontaneous abortion of unknown aetiology during the first trimester of pregnancy .They were compared with the corresponding levels of 20 pregnant and non-pregnant women as control groups .cytokine levels were measured by (ELISA) technique .The women with spontaneous abortion had highly significant (P < 0.01) increased serum level of IL-8 and highly significant (P < 0.01 ) decreased level of IL-6 compared to those with normal pregnant and non-pregnant women. The results of this study ma
... Show MoreThe present study tackles the scientific model and the mechanisms of operating in the formation of the image of the artistic work to create a scene that cares for the aesthetic decoration through raw and techniques and employing them to express the aesthetic values that care for what is not familiar and deviation from the familiar in the visual exhibition and the care for the employment of the technical abilities, lighting, and sound as well as the employment of multiple materials. The research presents the objectives of his study in the exhibition hall of Natural History Museum (University of Baghdad) to create an aesthetic and expressive state at the same time. Then, in the theoretical framework the researcher traces the experiments of
... Show MoreThis paper presents a sight about the chemical structure deformation of poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) samples according to the change ratio of rate constant values. Spectroscopy kinetics fluorescence curves are fitted for two characteristic wavelength domains of fluorescent intensities. The short wavelengths (320-400 nm) domain show spectra overlapping, while at long wavelengths (400-800 nm) domain spectra are arranged in regular for each specific accelerated aging time. The ratio of kinetics rate constant at long wavelengths to kinetics rate constant of short wavelengths is the criterion of the degree chemical structure deformation. Molar extrin
... Show MoreZygapophyseal joints (or facet joints), are a plane synovial joint which located between the articular facet processes of the vertebral arch which is freely guided movable joints. Ten dried vertebrae were used for the lumbar region and taking (L4) as a sample to reveal stress pathways across the joints by using ANSYS program under different loading conditions which used Finite Elements Analysis model. Results obtained from the ANSYS program are important in understanding the boundary conditions for load analysis and the points of stress concentration which explained from the anatomical point of view and linked to muscle and ligament attachments. This model used as a computational tool to joint biomechanics and to prosthetic im
... Show MoreThe current research aims to :
•know the level of social intelligence of the sample as a whole .
. •taraf statistically significant differences in social intelligence between disadvantaged and
non-disadvantaged peers .
To achieve these objectives, the selected sample of Talbhalmrahlh medium and specifically
students of the second grade average, were chosen randomly stratified's (360) students
included sex (male, female) and (deprived of the Father and the non-deprived) for the
academic year (2013-2014) for the province of Baghdad on both sides (Rusafa-Karkh (
As applied to them measurements of social intelligence, which is prepared by the researcher,
having achieved _khasaúsma of psychometric (valid and re
The Jeribe reservoir in the Jambour Oil Field is a complex and heterogeneous carbonate reservoir characterized by a wide range of permeability variations. Due to limited availability of core plugs in most wells, it becomes crucial to establish correlations between cored wells and apply them to uncored wells for predicting permeability. In recent years, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) approach has gained significant applicability for predicting hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and identifying rock types within the reservoir units. This paper aims to develop a permeability model based on the principles of the Flow Zone Indicator. Analysis of core permeability versus core porosity plot and Reservoir Quality Index (RQI) - Normalized poros
... Show MoreExisting leachate models over–or underestimates leachate generation by up to three orders of magnitude. Practical experiments show that channeled flow in waste leads to rapid discharge of large leachate volumes and heterogeneous moisture distribution. In order to more accurately predict leachate generation, leachate models must be improved. To predict moisture movement through waste, the two–domain PREFLO, are tested. Experimental waste and leachate flow values are compared with model predictions. When calibrated with experimental parameters, the PREFLO provides estimates of breakthrough time. In the short term, field capacity has to be reduced to 0.12 and effective storage and hydraulic conductivity of the waste must be increased to
... Show MoreThe deterioration of buried sewers during their lifetime can be affected by several factors leading to bad performance and can damage the infrastructure similar to other engineering structures. The Hydraulic deterioration of the buried sewers caused by sewer blockages while the structural deterioration caused by sewer collapses due to sewer specifications and the surrounding soil characteristics and the groundwater level. The main objective of this research is to develop deterioration models, which are used to predict changes in sewer condition that can provide assessment tools for determining the serviceability of sewer networks in Baghdad city. Two deterioration models were developed and tested using statistical software SPSS, the
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