The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This paper deals with a method called Statistical Energy Analysis that can be applied to the mechanical and acoustical systems like buildings, bridges and aircrafts …etc. S.E.A as a tool can be applied to the resonant systems in the circumstances of high frequency or/and complex structure». The parameters of S.E.A such as coupling loss factor, internal loss factor, modal density and input power are clarified in this work ; coupled plate sub-systems and explanations are presented for these parameters. The developed system is assumed to be resonant, conservative, linear and there is an equipartition of energy between all the resonant modes within a given frequency band in a given sub-system. The aim of th
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I wanted to address this topic because of creedal purposes importance,and its r le in regulating lives of individuals and society, and to talk about purposes of Almighty's saying:{It is easy for me},to simplify its meanings for general educated person to obtain the believe of the Creator’s power and his oneness.
Therefore,this research came,whichincludes:an introduction and topics, first :concept of creedal objectives and their divisions,second: creedal purposes in Almighty’s saying:{It is easy for me},and conclusion:in where most important results were included:
... Show MoreJudicial jurisprudence is one of the important legal solutions to address the shortcomings of legislation. Throughout its long history, human societies have known many cases in which the judge finds himself facing a legislative vacuum in addition to civil legal texts that are difficult for the judge to implement due to ambiguity or contradiction, which requires diligence. To rule on resolving disputes before him in order not to deny justice, but the judge in his jurisprudence was not absolute, but rather bound by certain controls represented by observing the wisdom of legislation on the one hand and taking into account the nature of the texts on the other side, and from here this research came to shed light on the jurisprudence and its cont
... Show MoreContinuous improvement, or Kaizen, is a philosophy that is based on the idea of continuously finding ways to improve things. From this point of view, continuous improvement is not limited to the quality of products or services but it also applies to all the processes in the organization. During the last two decades several continuous improvement approaches were developed and marketed. The advocates of each approach claim that their approach is the best, however all the approaches had their own advantages and disadvantages and had their share of criticism. The important question is how to choose the right continuous improvement approach? This research work addresses the philosophy, the concepts, the assumptio
... Show MoreThrough recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreThis study aimed to reveal the stage for teachers of basic training needs from the perspective of workers in Mafraq Governorate, through a survey of a sample of counselors look at the Ajloun area schools reached (58) counselors.
To achieve the objective of the study was constructed questionnaire where they are finalized (18) items distributed on two dimensions (professional needs, performance requirements) and after confirmation of the validity and reliability have been applied to the sample where the results showed that training needs were high, both on a professional or per formative level .
The results also showed no statistically significant differences in the areas of tool due to gender, educational qualification. The study co
In this work, an experimental study has been done to expect the heat characteristics and performance of the forced-convection from a heated horizontal rectangular fins array to air inside a rectangular cross-section duct. Three several configurations of rectangular fins array have been employed. One configuration without notches and perforations (solid) and two configurations with combination of rectangular-notches and circular-perforations for two various area removal percentages from fins namely 18% notches-9% perforations and 9% notches-18% perforations are utilized. The rectangular fins dimensions and fins number are kept constant. The fins array is heated electrically from the base
... Show MoreIn this research, the effect of adding two different types of reinforcing particles was investigated, which included: nano-zirconia (nano-ZrO2) particles and micro-lignin particles that were added with different volume fractions of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% and 2% on the mechanical properties of polymer composite materials. They were prepared in this research, as a complete prosthesis and partial denture base materials was prepared, by using cold cure poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA) resin matrix. The composite specimens in this research consist of two groups according to the types of reinforced particles, were prepared by using casting methods, type (Hand Lay-Up) method. The first group consists of PMMA resin reinforced by (nano-ZrO
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Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia
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This study aimed to identify the business risks using the approach of the client strategy analysis in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process. A study of business risks and their impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process has been performed to establish a cognitive framework of the main objective of this study, in which the descriptive analytical method has been adopted. A survey questionnaire has been developed and distributed to the targeted group of audit firms which have profession license from the Auditors Association in the Gaza Strip (63 offices). A hundred questionnaires have been distributed to the study sample of which, a total of 84 where answered and
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