The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Background: Bacteriocin is a peptidic toxin has many advantages to bacteria in their ecological niche and has strong antibacterial activity. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluation of bacteriocin using Streptococcus sanguinis isolated from human dental caries.
Subjects and Methods: Thirty five streptococcus isolates were diagnosed and tested for their production of bacteriocin, and then the optimal conditions for production of bacteriocin were determined. After that, the purification of bacteriocin was made partially by ammonium sulfate at 95% saturation levels, followed by and gel filtration chromatography
... Show MoreAcinetobacter baumannii received attention for its multi-drug resistant associated with many severe infections and outbreaks in clinical environment. The aims of the study are to investigate the antibiotic susceptibility profile of clinically isolated A. baumannii, biofilm production, and the efficiency of Low Frequency Ultrasound (LFU) and honey to attenuate biofilm production. A total of 100 samples were taken from different sources from Baghdad hospitals. The susceptibility patterns revealed the percentage of pan drug resistant (PDR) isolates were 1.5 %, 72.7 % were extended drug resistant (XDR), 16.7 % were multidrug resistant (MDR), and 9.1 % were non MDR and sensitive to most antibiotics used. The ability to form
... Show MoreThe extraction of Eucalyptus oil from Iraqi Eucalyptus Camadulensis leaves was studded using water distillation methods. The amount of Eucalyptus oil has been determined in a variety of extraction temperature and agitation speed. The effect of water to Eucalyptus leaves (solvent to solid) ratio and particle size of Eucalyptus leaves has been studied in order to evaluate the amount of Eucalyptus oil. The optimum experimental condition for the Eucalyptus oil extraction was established as follows: 100˚C extraction temperature, 200 rpm agitation speed; 0.5 cm leave particle size and 6:1 ml: g amount of water to eucalyptus leaves Ratio.
In the present study, the effectiveness of a procedure of electrocoagulation for removing chemical oxygen demand (COD) from the wastewater of petroleum refinery has been evaluated. Aluminum and stainless steel electrodes were used as a sacrificial anode and cathode respectively. The effect of current density (4-20mAcm−2), pH (3-11), and NaCl concentration (0-4g/l) on efficiency of removal of chemical oxygen demand was investigated. The results have shown that increasing of current density led to increase the efficiency of COD removal while increasing NaCl concentration resulted in decreasing of COD removal efficiency. Effect of pH was found to be lowering COD re
The current study is concerned over the benefits from our Prophet ' Surah , these benefits are seven which are : the first : ( The losing , disappointment , weakness in the affairs of those disbelievers ,the second : showing the affairs of the believers in respect to integrity , forgiveness and rest, the third : Indicating the big difference between the believers and disbelievers , each team has his own characteristics that being distinguished from the other, I have explained the benefit that the disbelievers are in a difficult
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to utilize the behavior of a mathematical model consisting of three-species with Lotka Volterra functional response with incorporating of fear and hunting cooperation factors with both juvenile and adult predators. The existence of equilibrium points of the system was discussed the conditions with variables. The behavior of model referred by local stability in nearness of any an equilibrium point and the conditions for the method of approximating the solution has been studied locally. We define a suitable Lyapunov function that covers every element of the nonlinear system and illustrate that it works. The effect of the death factor was observed in some periods, leading to non-stability. To confirm the theore
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The nuclear structure of 28-40Si isotopes toward neutron dripline has been investigated in framework of shell model with Skyrme-Hrtree-Fock method using certain Skyrme parameterizations. Moreover, investigations of static properties such as nuclear densities for proton, neutron, mass, and, charge densities with their corresponding rms radii, neutron skin thicknesses, binding energies, separation energies, shell gap, and pairing gap have been performed using the most recent Skyrme parameterization. The calculated results have been compared with available experimental data to identify which of these parameterizations introduced equivalent results with the ex
... Show MoreIn this paper, we established a mathematical model of an SI1I2R epidemic disease with saturated incidence and general recovery functions of the first disease I1. Considering the basic reproduction number, we obtained conditions for both disease-free and co-existing cases. The equilibrium points local stability is verified by using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, while for the global stability, we used a suitable Lyapunov function to analyze the endemic spread of the positive equilibrium point. Moreover, we carried out the local bifurcation around both equilibrium points (disease-free and co-existing), where we obtained that the disease-free equilibrium point undergoes a transcritical bifurcation. We conduct numerical simulations that suppo
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