The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point
... Show MoreThe mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation
... Show MoreThe performance of a solar cell under sun radiation is necessary to describe the electrical parameters of the cell. The Prova 200 solar panel analyzer is used for the professional testing of four solar cells at Baghdad climate conditions. Voltage -current characteristics of different area solar cells operated under solar irradiation for testing their quality and determining the optimal operational parameters for maximum electrical output were obtained. A correlation is developed between solar cell efficiency h and the corresponding solar cell parameters; solar irradiance G, maximum power Pmax, and production date P. The average absolute error of the proposed correlation is 5.5% for 40 data points. The results also show th
... Show MoreExperimental study of heat transfer coefficients in air-liquid-solid fluidized beds were carried out by measuring the heat rate and the overall temperature differences across the heater at different operating conditions. The experiments were carried out in Q.V.F. glass column of 0.22 m inside diameter and 2.25 m height with an axially mounted cylindrical heater of 0.0367 m diameter and 0.5 m height. The fluidizing media were water as a continuous phase and air as a dispersed phase. Low density (Ploymethyl-methacrylate, 3.17 mm size) and high density (Glass beads, 2.31 mm size) particles were used as solid phase. The bed temperature profiles were measured axially and radially in the bed for different positions. Thermocouples were connecte
... Show MoreThe distribution of chilled water flow rate in terminal unit is a major factor used to evaluate the performance of central air conditioning unit. In this work, a theoretical chilled water distribution in the terminal units has been studied to predict the optimum heat performance of terminal unit. The central Air-conditioning unit model consists of cooling/ heating coil (three units), chilled water source (chiller), three-way and two-way valve with bypass, piping network, and pump. The term of optimization in terminal unit ingredient has two categories, the first is the uniform of the water flow rate representing in statically permanents standard deviation (minimum value) and the second category is the maximum heat transfer rate fro
... Show MoreCorrelation equations for expressing the boiling temperature as direct function of liquid composition have been tested successfully and applied for predicting azeotropic behavior of multicomponent mixtures and the kind of azeotrope (minimum, maximum and saddle type) using modified correlation of Gibbs-Konovalov theorem. Also, the binary and ternary azeotropic point have been detected experimentally using graphical determination on the basis of experimental binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium data.
In this study, isobaric vapor-liquid equilibrium for two ternary systems: “1-Propanol – Hexane – Benzene” and its binaries “1-Propanol –
... Show MoreMachine learning has a significant advantage for many difficulties in the oil and gas industry, especially when it comes to resolving complex challenges in reservoir characterization. Permeability is one of the most difficult petrophysical parameters to predict using conventional logging techniques. Clarifications of the work flow methodology are presented alongside comprehensive models in this study. The purpose of this study is to provide a more robust technique for predicting permeability; previous studies on the Bazirgan field have attempted to do so, but their estimates have been vague, and the methods they give are obsolete and do not make any concessions to the real or rigid in order to solve the permeability computation. To
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