The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
The vegetative filter strips (VFS) are a useful tool used for reducing the movement of sediment and pesticide in therivers. The filter strip’s soil can help in reducing the runoff volume by infiltration. However, the characteristics of VFS (i.e., length) are not recently identified depending on the estimation of VFS modeling performance. The aim of this research is to study these characteristics and determine acorrelation between filter strip length and percent reduction (trapping efficiency) for sediment, water, and pesticide. Two proposed pesticides(one has organic carbon sorption coefficient, Koc, of 147 L/kg which is more moveable than XXXX, and another one
... Show MoreProblem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world. Thus to overcome this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation systems are needed. Irrigation with buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in management of irrigation water. The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the software HYDRUS/2D to predict empirical formulas that describe the predicted results accurately. Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected. In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation a
... Show MoreSequence covering array (SCA) generation is an active research area in recent years. Unlike the sequence-less covering arrays (CA), the order of sequence varies in the test case generation process. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of the SCA strategies, earlier works reported that finding a minimal size of a test suite is considered as an NP-Hard problem. In addition, most of the existing strategies for SCA generation have a high order of complexity due to the generation of all combinatorial interactions by adopting one-test-at-a-time fashion. Reducing the complexity by adopting one-parameter- at-a-time for SCA generation is a challenging process. In addition, this reduction facilitates the supporting for a higher strength of
... Show MoreIn this paper, third order non-polynomial spline function is used to solve 2nd kind Volterra integral equations. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of this method, and to compare the computed results with other known methods.
In this study, a cholera model with asymptomatic carriers was examined. A Holling type-II functional response function was used to describe disease transmission. For analyzing the dynamical behavior of cholera disease, a fractional-order model was developed. First, the positivity and boundedness of the system's solutions were established. The local stability of the equilibrium points was also analyzed. Second, a Lyapunov function was used to construct the global asymptotic stability of the system for both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points. Finally, numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis were carried out using matlab software to demonstrate the accuracy and validate the obtained results.
Sequence covering array (SCA) generation is an active research area in recent years. Unlike the sequence-less covering arrays (CA), the order of sequence varies in the test case generation process. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of the SCA strategies, earlier works reported that finding a minimal size of a test suite is considered as an NP-Hard problem. In addition, most of the existing strategies for SCA generation have a high order of complexity due to the generation of all combinatorial interactions by adopting one-test-at-a-time fashion. Reducing the complexity by adopting one-parameter- at-a-time for SCA generation is a challenging process. In addition, this reduction facilitates the supporting for a higher strength of cove
... Show MoreThe research to knows some biomechanics variables in different spots with and without players in basketball youth players and analysis by using destructive method in surfing study and the research were applied for jump shoot from one of basketball players in ( middle , left , right ) in side zone and out of zone also from three point shoot with and without defense and we depend on successful shoot on analyze .The results and conclusions that center of weight of the player on standby on high and knee angel and hips were more wide also the two angle of wrist , elbow on start of shooting be more wide with defender more than without defender .the maximum high center of weight and shooting angle and ball entrance being less degree with defender
... Show MoreThe robot arm is the most popular robotic form used in industry. Thus, it is crucial to make a system programming which could controlled the movement of each part in the industrial robot to make it works properly. One of the simplest models of the robot arm is EDARM ED-7100 which has a controller to control the movement of the robot arm manually. In this study, the robot controller has been redesigned in order to improve this robot's function. The new controller system used AT89S52 microcontroller which has wire connected to the robot hand. A function has been added with this controller to improve the system of controlling and becomes better than the previous system (only manually). The functions of the new system include three mo
... Show MoreOne technique used to prepare nanoparticles material is Pulsed Laser Ablation in Liquid (PLAL), Silver Oxide nanoparticles (AgO) were prepared by using this technique, where silver target was submerged in ultra-pure water (UPW) at room temperature after that Nd:Yag laser which characteristics by 1064 nm wavelength, Q-switched, and 6ns pulse duration was used to irradiated silver target. This preparation method was used to study the effects of laser irradiation on Nanoparticles synthesized by used varying laser pulse energy 1000 mJ, 500 mJ, and 100 mJ, with 500 pulses each time on the particle size. Nanoparticles are characterized using XRD, SEM, AFM, and UV-Visible spectroscopy. All the structural peaks determined by the XRD
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