The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The search is contain compared among some order selection criteria (FPE,AIC,SBC,H-Q) for the Model first order Autoregressive when the White Noise is follow Normal distribution and some of non Gaussian distributions (Log normal, Exponential and Poisson distribution ) by using Simulation
the most important purposes and uses of the test results in the educational sector. This is because the quality of tests is related to their ability to predict the learner's behavior in the future, and the accuracy of the educational and administrative decisions that are taken in light of their results. The study aimed accordingly to reveal the predictive ability of the university Grade Point Average (GPA) in the Score of the specialized test for the position of teacher in the Ministry of Education in the Sultanate of Oman. It further aimed to investigate the differences in the predictive ability according to the specialization and academic year using the descriptive approach. The sample of the study consisted of (349) s/he students enro
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Abstract
This study aims to identify the degree to which the first cycle teachers use different feedback patterns in the e-learning system in addition to the differences in the degree of use according to specialization, teaching experience, and in-service training in the field of classroom assessment, as well as the interaction between them. The study sample consisted of (350) female teachers of the first cycle in government schools in Muscat Governorate for the academic year 2020/2021. The study used a questionnaire that contained four different patterns of feedback, which are reinforcement, informative, corrective, and interpretive feedback. The psychometric properties of the que
... Show MoreThe quality of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) networks are considerably influenced by the configuration of the observed baselines. Where, this study aims to find an optimal configuration for GNSS baselines in terms of the number and distribution of baselines to improve the quality criteria of the GNSS networks. First order design problem (FOD) was applied in this research to optimize GNSS network baselines configuration, and based on sequential adjustment method to solve its objective functions.
FOD for optimum precision (FOD-p) was the proposed model which based on the design criteria of A-optimality and E-optimality. These design criteria were selected as objective functions of precision, whic
... Show MoreIn this paper, the author established some new integral conditions for the oscillation of all solutions of nonlinear first order neutral delay differential equations. Examples are inserted to illustrate the results.
Chemical compounds, characteristics, and molecular structures are inevitably connected. Topological indices are numerical values connected with chemical molecular graphs that contribute to understanding a chemical compounds physical qualities, chemical reactivity, and biological activity. In this study, we have obtained some topological properties of the first dominating David derived (DDD) networks and computed several K-Banhatti polynomials of the first type of DDD.
This research introduce a study with application on Principal Component Regression obtained from some of the explainatory variables to limitate Multicollinearity problem among these variables and gain staibilty in their estimations more than those which yield from Ordinary Least Squares. But the cost that we pay in the other hand losing a little power of the estimation of the predictive regression function in explaining the essential variations. A suggested numerical formula has been proposed and applied by the researchers as optimal solution, and vererifing the its efficiency by a program written by the researchers themselves for this porpuse through some creterions: Cumulative Percentage Variance, Coefficient of Determination, Variance
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