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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Estimating genetic parameters of maize hybrids and parents under different plant densities (Combining ability for yield and some other traits for maize Zea mays L.)
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A field experiment was carried out in the fields of the Field Crops Department - Faculty of Agricultural Engineering Sciences. The study included five inbred lines (ZM43W (ZE), ZM60, ZM49W3E, ZM19, CDCN5), given numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) to study the hybrid vigor and both general and special combing ability (GCA, SCA) of the half diallel mating method, for the spring and fall seasons (2016). The genetic analysis shows that all crosses gave a positive hybrid vigor for grain yield per unit area at the two population densities. the highest value is 116.20% for cross (3´5 )at low density, and 89.22% for cross( 1´4 )at high density. The hybrid vigor for all crosses is positive at two densities for dry matter yield, crop growth rate an

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Language Teaching And Research
Emotional Blackmail in Breaking Bad Series: A Pragma-Stylistic Study
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Although language research has focused on blackmail in general, less attention has been paid to emotional blackmail. To date, researchers could not locate any literature that examines emotional blackmail from a linguistic standpoint. The current study is intended to fill this gap by scrutinizing emotional blackmail from a pragma-stylistic point of view by examining the style of the characters in selected episodes extracted from the American Breaking Bad series. To carry out the study, an eclectic model comprising kinds of emotional blackmailers by Forward and Frazier (1997), Searles’ speech acts (1979), Grice’s maxims (1975), Brown and Levinson’s politeness (1987), Culpeper’s impoliteness (1996), and Simpson’s stylistic le

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 04 2006
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis a new series of azo compounds containing oxadiazole rings
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Some new 2,5-disubsituted-1,3,4-oxadiazole derivatives with azo group were synthesized by known reactions sequence . The structure of the synthesized compounds were confirmed by physical and spectral means .

Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Suggestibility in Kindergarteners and its relation to some variables
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The childhood of the most important stages throughout the human and which have been more vulnerable to various factors surrounding it and with the scientific and cognitive development in all fields surfaced many psychological phenomena that play a large role in influencing children and their behavior trends is the susceptibility of the lure of psychological phenomena which plays a major role in the social attitudes of individuals it may not be predictable so that individuals vary in between them in terms of vulnerability Balasthoa You do this only _bl that the same individual at different influenced Balasthoa different depending on the positions and this was research to achieve its objectives and that are known:
_ alasthoa The childre

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Reliable Steganography System Using Random Key in a spatial Domain of Image
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With time progress importance of hiding information become more and more and all steganography applications is like computer games between hiding and extracting data, or like thieves and police men always thieve hides from police men in different ways to keep him out of prison. The sender always hides information in new way in order not to be understood by the attackers and only the authorized receiver can open the hiding message. This paper explores our proposed random method in detail, how chooses locations of pixel in randomly , how to choose a random bit to hide information in the chosen pixel, how it different from other approaches, how applying information hiding criteria on the proposed project, and attempts to test out in code, and

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of the application of IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers" on the quality of financial reporting
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Abstract

This study aims at identifying the impact of the application of IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers on the quality of financial reporting, through application to faculty members in the accounting departments of Iraqi universities and auditors. The problem of the study was the multiplicity of accounting rules and standards Which deals with the issues of revenue recognition , as well as the lack of consistency of most of them with the common framework of financial accounting, which results in low quality of financial reporting in the current financial statements, where the formulation of one hypothesis was the lack of relationship of significant significance The application of IFRS 15 "Recognition of rev

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Hybrid Transform Based Denoising with Block Thresholding
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A frequently used approach for denoising is the shrinkage of coefficients of the noisy signal representation in a transform domain. This paper proposes an algorithm based on hybrid transform (stationary wavelet transform proceeding by slantlet transform); The slantlet transform is applied to the approximation subband of the stationary wavelet transform. BlockShrink thresholding technique is applied to the hybrid transform coefficients. This technique can decide the optimal block size and thresholding for every wavelet subband by risk estimate (SURE). The proposed algorithm was executed by using MATLAB R2010aminimizing Stein’s unbiased with natural images contaminated by white Gaussian noise. Numerical results show that our algorithm co

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
Energies
Synergizing Machine Learning and Physical Models for Enhanced Gas Production Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Short- and Long-Term Feasibility
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Advanced strategies for production forecasting, operational optimization, and decision-making enhancement have been employed through reservoir management and machine learning (ML) techniques. A hybrid model is established to predict future gas output in a gas reservoir through historical production data, including reservoir pressure, cumulative gas production, and cumulative water production for 67 months. The procedure starts with data preprocessing and applies seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) to capture seasonality and trends in production data, while an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) captures complicated spatiotemporal connections. The history replication in the models is quantified for accuracy through metric keys such as m

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Investigation of Load and Pressure Distribution on Wing with Wake Rollup for Low Speed Aircraft
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The presented work shows a preliminary analytic method for estimation of load and pressure distributions on low speed wings with flow separation and wake rollup phenomena’s. A higher order vortex panel method is coupled with the numerical lifting line theory by means of iterative procedure including models of separation and wake rollup. The computer programs are written in FORTRAN which are stable and efficient.

      The capability of the present method is investigated through a number of test cases with different types of wing sections (NACA 0012 and GA(W)-1) for different aspect ratios and angles of attack, the results include the lift and drag curves, lift and pressure distributions along the wing s

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