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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pure And Apllied Mathematics
A SEMI ANALYTICAL ITERATIVE TECHNIQUE FOR SOLVING DUFFING EQUATIONS
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Guggulusome - A Novel Vesicular Carriers for Enhanced Transdermal Delivery
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The present work describes guggul as a novel carrier for some anti-inflammatory drugs. Guggulusomes containing different concentration of guggul with aceclofenac were prepared by sonication method and characterized for vesicle shape, size, size-distribution, pH, viscosity, spread ability, homogeneity, and accelerated stability in-vitro drug permeation through mouse skin. The vesicles exhibited an entrapment efficiency of 93.2 ± 12%, vesicle size of 0.769 ± 3μm and a zeta potential of - 6.21mV. In vitro drug release was analyzed using Franz’s diffusion cells. The cumulative release of the guggulusomes gel (G2) was 75.8% in 18 hrs, which is greater than that all the gel formulation. The stability profile of prepare

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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Mathematics
A Mathematical Study for the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease
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Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic’s development has presented significant societal and economic challenges. The carriers of COVID-19 transmission have also been identified as asymptomatic infected people. Yet, most epidemic models do not consider their impact when accounting for the disease’s indirect transmission. This study suggested and investigated a mathematical model replicating the spread of coronavirus disease among asymptomatic infected people. A study was conducted on every aspect of the system’s solution. The equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number were computed. The endemic equilibrium point and the disease-free equilibrium point had both undergone local stability analyses. A geometric technique was used

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 08 2021
Journal Name
Biomolecules
A Pan-Inhibitor for Protein Arginine Methyltransferase Family Enzymes
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Protein arginine methyltransferases (PRMTs) play important roles in transcription, splicing, DNA damage repair, RNA biology, and cellular metabolism. Thus, PRMTs have been attractive targets for various diseases. In this study, we reported the design and synthesis of a potent pan-inhibitor for PRMTs that tethers a thioadenosine and various substituted guanidino groups through a propyl linker. Compound II757 exhibits a half-maximal inhibition concentration (IC50) value of 5 to 555 nM for eight tested PRMTs, with the highest inhibition for PRMT4 (IC50 = 5 nM). The kinetic study demonstrated that II757 competitively binds at the SAM binding site of PRMT1. Notably, II757 is selective for PRMTs over a panel of other methyltransferases, w

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of King Saud University - Science
A semi-analytical iterative technique for solving chemistry problems
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2010
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advancements In Computing Technology
A proposed Technique for Information Hiding Based on DCT
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The aim of this work is to design an algorithm which combines between steganography andcryptography that can hide a text in an image in a way that prevents, as much as possible, anysuspicion of the hidden textThe proposed system depends upon preparing the image data for the next step (DCT Quantization)through steganographic process and using two levels of security: the RSA algorithm and the digitalsignature, then storing the image in a JPEG format. In this case, the secret message will be looked asplaintext with digital signature while the cover is a coloured image. Then, the results of the algorithmare submitted to many criteria in order to be evaluated that prove the sufficiency of the algorithm andits activity. Thus, the proposed algorit

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah
Synthesis, Spectroscopic and Biological Studies of a New Some Complexes with N-Pyridin-2-Ylmethyl-Benzene-1, 2Diamine
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study the Effect of TiO2 Nanoparticles Combination with Antibiotics and Plant extracts Against Some Gram Negative Bacteria
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Titanium dioxide TiO2 has been widely utilized in cleaning and sterilizing material for many clinical tools sanitary ware, food tableware and cooking and items for use in hospitals. Titanium dioxide TiO2 non toxicity and long term physical and chemical stability. It has been widely used decomposition of organic compounds and microbial organisms such as cancer cell, viruses and bacteria as well as its potential application in sterilization of medical devices. The aim of the study the effect of titanium dioxide TiO2 on some Gram negative bacteria and study their effects on some virulence factors and chromosomal DNA.In this study, we obtained (E. coli ? Proteus mirabilis, Proteus vulgaris ? Pseudomonas aeruginosa ? Klebsiella pneumonia and Ac

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Karbala Journal Of Physical Education Sciences
The effect of using a designed device to develop the technical performance of the descending landing skill facing with half a cycle on the parallel device of the technical men's
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The research included five sections containing the first section on the introduction of the research and its importance and was addressed to the importance of the game of gymnastic and skilled parallel effectiveness and the importance of learning, but the problem of research that there is a difference in learning this skill and difficulty in learning may be one of the most important reasons are fear and fear of falling and injury, And a lack of sense of the movement of the movement is one of the obstacles in the completion of the skill and the goal of research to design a device that helps in learning the skill of descending Almtor facing with half a cycle according to the typical locomotor track on the parallel device of the technical men'

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 15 2022
Journal Name
Bmc Health Services Research
Design and evaluation of a new mobile application to improve the management of minor ailments: a pilot study
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

Seeking pharmacist advice about minor ailments is a common practice among Iraqi patients because such advice is free and quick. Unfortunately, the assessment and management of minor ailments by Iraqi pharmacists were inappropriate. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model for a mobile application that can assist community pharmacists in the diagnosis and management of minor ailments.

Methods

The scientific content of the application was based on the information in the symptoms in the pharmacy and British Nati

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