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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 07 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
Synthesis and Characterization of Tetradentate Complexes Type N2O2 From the Reaction of 2-Hydroxy -1, 2-Diphynel-Ethanone Oxime [H2L] With Mn II, Fe II, Co II, Ni II, Cu II and Hg II Ions
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Tetradentate complexes type [M (HL) 2] were prepared from the reaction of 2-hydroxy -1, 2-diphynel-ethanone oxime [H2L] and KOH with ( Mn II, Fe II, Co II, Ni II , Cu II and Hg II ), in methanol with (2:1) metal: ligand ratio. The general formula for Cu II and Mn II complexes are [M (HL) 2 Cl.H2O] K, for Co II [Co (HL) 2. H2O] and [M (HL) 2] for the rest of complexes. All compounds were characterised by spectroscopic methods, I.R, U.V-Vis, H.P.L.C, atomic absorption and conductivity measurements chloride content. From the data of these measurements, the proposed molecular structures for Fe II and Hg II complexes are tetrahedrals, while Mn II and Cu II complexes are octahedrals, Ni II complex adopting square planar structure and the complex

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation and Spectral Characterization of New Azo Imidazole Ligand 2-[(2`-Cyano Phenyl) Azo]-4,5-Diphenyl Imidazole and its Complexes with Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II) and Hg (II) Ions
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The preparation and spectral characterization of complexes for Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Cd(II), Zn(II) and Hg(II) ions with new organic heterocyclic azo imidazole dye as ligand 2-[(2`-cyano phenyl) azo ]-4,5-diphenyl imidazole ) (2-CyBAI) were prepared by reacting a dizonium salt solution of 2-cyano aniline with 4,5-diphenyl imidazole in alkaline ethanolic solution .These complexes were characterized spectroscopically by infrared and electronic spectra along with elemental analysis‚ molar conductance and magnetic susceptibility measurements. The data show that the ligand behaves a bidantate and coordinates to the metal ion via nitrogen atom of azo and with imidazole N3 atom. Octahedral environment is suggested for all metal complex

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees21gr
AIP Conference Proceedings 2437, 020060 (2022); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0092690 2437, 020060© 2022 Author(s).Theoretical calculation of the electroniccurrent at N3 contact with TiO2 solar celldevices (3) (PDF) Theoretical calculation of the electronic current at N 3 contact with TiO 2 solar cell devices ARTICLES YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN Theoretical studies of electronic transition characteristics of senstizer molecule dye N3-SnO 2 semiconductor interface AIP Conference. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362813854_Theoretical_calculation_of_the_electronic_current_at_N_3_contact_with_TiO_2_solar_cell_devices_ARTICLES_YOU_MAY_BE_INTERESTED_IN_Theoretical_studies_of_electronic_transition_characteristics_of_senstiz [accessed May 01 2023].
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Theoretical calculation of the electronic current at N 3 contact with TiO 2 solar cell devices ARTICLES YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN Theoretical studies of electronic transition characteristics of senstizer molecule dye N3-SnO 2 semiconductor interface AIP Conference. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362813854_Theoretical_calculation_of_the_electronic_current_at_N_3_contact_with_TiO_2_solar_cell_devices_ARTICLES_YOU_MAY_BE_INTERESTED_IN_Theoretical_studies_of_electronic_transition_characteristics_of_senstiz [accessed May 01 2023].

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Training Program Based on Employing the Educational Portal in Developing the Skills of the Administrative Body in Basic Education Schools in Dhofar Governorate
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The objective of the study was to identify the effectiveness of a training program based on the employment of the educational portal in the development of the skills of the administrative body in the basic education schools in Dhofar Governorate. To achieve the goal, a training program was designed that includes the skills of the educational portal to be met by the administrative body and measuring its effectiveness. A questionnaire to identify training needs, and a notecard to evaluate performance. The study sample consisted of (70) individuals of the administrative staff. The researchers used the descriptive-analytical method to identify the training needs, design and build the training program and the experimental method for applying

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The interactive relationship between the dimensions of the requirements of economic intelligence and the strategic success of banks: Applied research on a sample of Iraqi private banks
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The aim of this research is to demonstrate the nature of the interactive relationship between the dimensions of the requirements of economic intelligence Represented by(Administrative and regulatory requirements, human requirements, and technical requirements) The strategic success of banks is represented by (Customer satisfaction, customer confidence, quality of service, growth) In three of the Iraqi banks own bank(Middle East Iraqi Investment, Al Ahli Iraqi, Gulf Commercial), The questionnaire was adopted as a tool for collecting data and information Of the sample (85) Who are they(Director of the Commissioner, M. Director Plenipotentiary, Director of Department, Director of Section, M. Section Manager, Division Officer, Unit Officer),

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A comparative study of the pivotal characters in the novel "Al-Shahz" and the script "Hamoon": بررسی تطبیقی شخصیت¬های محوری در رمان «الشحّاذ» و فیلم‌نامۀ «هامون»
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The novel is the revelation of the attitudes of every age. And the writers do not know the winner of their stroke to express these events، The research has been working on a descriptive-analytical approach based on the American Comparative School، Al-Shahez's novel explores the work of the nobly and the film by Hamoun by Dariush Mehrjui By relying on the main characters of these two narratives, they depict a picture of Egypt and Iran From the symbolic lines of these works. In fact, the authors of this research have tried to initiate the introduction and analysis of these two works In fact, the authors of this research have tried to initiate the introduction and analysis of these two works.

 The results of the research show that

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The possibility of adopting a market approach to measure the fair value of biological assets in Iraq: (Applied study in Middle East Fish Production and Marketing Company)
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The research aims to show the possibility of adopting the market approach to measure the fair value of biological assets in Iraq, by applying to a sample of the company listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, where the Middle East Fish Production and Marketing Company was selected from among 7 companies representing the agricultural sector in Iraq, and according to the availability of data and for five years, the financial statements were presented of the measurement and disclosure of  biological assets at fair value according to the market approach, One of the most important conclusions reached by the researcher is the The possibility of measuring and disclosing biological assets at fair value according to the market approach in the Ira

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating the quality of educational services according to the modified Servqual modelStudy of a sample of students of the Faculty of Management and Economics / University of Baghdad
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The research aims to apply a modified SERVQUAL model to evaluate the quality of the educational services via conducting exploratory research for students from the College of Administration and Economics- Department of Business Administration- Evening studies at the University of Baghdad. Questionnaire of two parts was distributed to a sample of (72) students out of (720) students of the 2nd.,3rd. and 4th. year in the beginning of the second semester of the year 2008-2009 to measure the expectations and perceptions to the quality of the educational services. Five major dimensions were analyzed to see the gaps for (22) variables. The study concluded that there were (13) variables confirmed that the

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 07 2020
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
The biosorption of reactive red dye onto orange peel waste: a study on the isotherm and kinetic processes and sensitivity analysis using the artificial neural network approach
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 20 2017
Journal Name
Anglisticum.
The Pragmatic Argumentation of Discourse Markers in English Academic Writing: A Corpus-Based Analysis الحجة التداولية لعلامات الخطاب في الكتابة الأكاديمية الإنكليزية: تحليل يعتمد على البيانات المحوسبة
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Academic writing is a key skill for success in academic life, particularly for graduate students of a foreign language. The importance of writing to academic culture, practice, and knowledge building has led to a great deal of research in many fields, including rhetoric and composition, linguistics, applied linguistics, and English for Academic Purposes (EAP). Often, studies and research investigating academic writing are motivated by the need to inform the learning of writing to native and non-native English-speaking students, through both descriptions of professional academic writing as well as through comparisons of novice writer (native and non-native Englishspeaking) and expert production. However, while learning about academic writing

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