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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2026
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Chemical Society Of Ethiopia
SYNTHESIS, CHARACTERIZATION, AND THERMAL STUDYING OF Cr(III), Co(II), Fe(III) Mo(VI), Ru (III) and Rh(III) COMPLEXES WITH AZO DYE AND EVALUATION AS ANTIOXIDANT AND ANTICANCER
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Complexes of the Cr(III), Fe(III), Rh(III), Ru (III), Mo hexagonal valence and Co(II) were prepared using the azo dye 1,1'-(1,3-phenylene bis(diazene-2,1-diyl))bis(2,4,6-trihydroxy-3,1-phenylene))bis(ethan-1-one), which was prepared newly from diazonium salt with 2,4,6-trihydroxyacetophenone, after isolation. The compounds were characterized using proton and carbon nuclear magnetic resonance of the ligand and fine elemental analysis, infrared, ultraviolet-visible, mass measurement, thermogravimetric analysis, differential thermal scanning, metal percentage determination, chlorine content determination, magnetic susceptibility, and molar conductivity. The results showed that the tetra coordinated anionic bond, when linked to metal ions via t

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 30 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
SYNTHESIS, SPECTROSCOPIC IDENTIFICATION AND ANTIMICROBIAL ACTIVITY OF MIXED LIGAND COMPLEXES OF NEW LIGAND [3-((4- ACETYL PHENYL)AMINO)-5,5-DIMETHYLCYCLOHEX-2-EN-1-ONE] (HL* ) WITH 3-AMINO PHENOL
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This work includes the synthesis and identification of ligand {3-((4-acetylphenyl)amino)-5,5-dimethylcyclohex2-en-1-one} (HL* ) by the treatment of 5,5-dimethylcyclohexane-1,3-dione with 4-aminoacetophenone under reflux. The ligand (HL* ) was identified via FTIR, Mass spectrum, elemental analysis (C.H.N.), 1H and 13C-NMR spectra, UV-Vis spectroscopy, TGA and melting point. The complexes were synthesized from ligand (HL* ) mixed with 3-aminophenol (A) and metal ion M(II), where M(II) = (Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd) at alkaline medium to produce complexes of general formula [M(L* )(A)] with (1:1:1) molar ratio. These complexes were detected via FT-IR spectra, UV-Vis spectroscopy as well as elemental analysis (A.A) and melting point, conductivit

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The Effect of Using an Electronic Program with Supplementary Tools on the Development of Futsal Officiating Performance Among Female Students of the College of Physical Education and Sport Sciences
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Due to the numerous motor and performance skills required of female students in futsal refereeing during college lessons, along with the constant need to reposition themselves and move within the playing field, continuous monitoring and repetition are essential to minimize potential errors during performance. These errors may arise from failing to assume the correct position or delays in signalling officiating gestures. Addressing this issue necessitated the implementation of an electronic program and supplementary tools—such as electronic games, scientific posters illustrating officiating signals, and other instructional aids—since these serve as guiding tools that direct individuals toward correct performance by distinguishing

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The causes of the fire and its impact accidents compensation insurance companies: Applied Research in a sample of the general insurance companies
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      The subject of the evolution of fire insurance of the hottest topics accidents, because it falls within the commercial insurance, as its importance is reflected for being a security source and contentment of the insured person and so it is worth pointing out the importance of fire insurance in enterprises and organizations of all kinds, because of the guarantee of its assets from meridian as well as protection from the effects of the fire therefore ensure continuity in the performance of their activities

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Approach Using K-Means Algorithm to Prevent Burst Header Packet Flooding Attack in Optical Burst Switching Network
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Optical burst switching (OBS) network is a new generation optical communication technology. In an OBS network, an edge node first sends a control packet, called burst header packet (BHP) which reserves the necessary resources for the upcoming data burst (DB). Once the reservation is complete, the DB starts travelling to its destination through the reserved path. A notable attack on OBS network is BHP flooding attack where an edge node sends BHPs to reserve resources, but never actually sends the associated DB. As a result the reserved resources are wasted and when this happen in sufficiently large scale, a denial of service (DoS) may take place. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised machine learning approach using k-means algorithm

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent to Which the Internal audit function contributes to improving administrative performance: A field study in the Baghdad Health Department / Rusafa
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Abstract:

                The internal audit is considered the safety valve for senior management in all institutions. It aims to protect property, and raise the efficiency and effectiveness of the administrative performance, by following up on compliance with laws and instructions and the application of regulations in a way that increases the administrative performance of the department. The internal audit is possible to determine Weaknesses or imbalances in the administrative performance. To achieve this goal, an analytical descriptive methodology was adopted. The Baghdad Health Department / Al-Rosana was considered as society for this s

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenographic space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model: فرحان عمران موسى - سماء محي عطية محمد
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The operative system of theatrical performance depends on the construction of the scenographic space, as it constitutes the most aesthetic effect of the recipient, and the body of the theatrical discourse that contains the signs of the show, and it comes as an embodiment of the directing vision of the show director, so most of the world directors resorted to attention to the output treatment to establish the scenographic space, and thus it possesses a contrast in The embodiment of the directing vision according to the stylistic and hermeneutical dimension of the director, so the two researchers found the importance of studying the topic, and the study came under the title (Directing Treatments of the Scenographic Space in the Iraqi Theat

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم و التكنولوجية للنشاطات البدنية و الرياضية/ الجزائر
The effect of using the five-finger strategy on learning movement chain on a balance beam in the artistic gymnastics of women
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Abstract: The aim of the research identify the effect of using the five-finger strategy in learning a movement chain on the balance beam apparatus for students in the third stage in the College of Physical Education and Sports Science, as well as to identify which groups (experimental and controlling) are better in learning the kinematic chain on the balance beam device, has been used The experimental approach is to design the experimental and control groups with pre-and post-test. The research sample was represented by third-graders, as the third division (j) was chosen by lot to represent the experimental group, and a division Third (i) to represent the control group, after which (10) students from each division were tested by lot to repr

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of voluntary corporate disclosure on tax planning: An applied analytical research of a sample of Iraqi private joint-stock companies
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In recent years, the attention of researchers, governments and international non-governmental organizations has focused on the aggressive practices adopted by companies with the aim of evading the tax burden or from paying the tax obligations imposed on them by law, as the results of these practices are negatively affected by tax revenues. And that companies are part of the society in which they work, and they have rights and obligations, including paying taxes. The research community is the Iraqi private shareholding companies, and the research sample was 4 companies within the private sector and in the field and finance - banking, insurance, industrial and service, which are Ashur Bank, Al-Ahlia Insurance Company, Baghdad Soft

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A study of the effect of new cobalt (II) complex and cyclophosphamide drug on (GPT, ALP) activity by using in vivo system
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The present work involved a study the effect of cobalt(II) complex with formula [CoL(H2O)NO3] .4ETOH where L=Nitro [5-(P-nitro phenyl) -4-phenyl-1,2,4 traizole-3-dithiocarbamato hydrazide] aqua. (4) Ethanol and anti-cancer drug - cyclophosphamide on specific activity of two liver enzymes (GPT,ALP) by utilizing an in vivo system in female mice. On the enzymatic level an inhibition in the activity of GPT was noticed in different body organs such as liver, kidney and lung. The inhibition was noticed in both test and cyclophosphamide drug (cp). Mice were treated with three doses of cyclophosphamide (90,180, 250) ?g/ mouse for three days. The same doses were used for the cobalt (II) complex. The liver shows the highest rate of(GPT) inhibition co

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