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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 31 2018
Journal Name
Al-anbar Univrsety Jornal For Law And Political Science
The Civil Liability of Police Officers Arising from Pursuit-Related Damages – A Study in Light of American Law and Case Law
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Since the invention of the automobile, no aspect of American life, including crime and its control, has remained untouched by this far-reaching innovation in transportation. Vehicular "hot pursuit"-when suspects in motor vehicles use excessive speed in attempting to elude the police. Unfortunately, accounts of wild chases across crowded inner city streets, through tree-lined suburban boulevards, and over remote country roads are very real and not merely fictional material created for entertaining television and motion picture audiences. The specter of "hot pursuit," complete with screaming sirens and red or blue flashing lights, has become a recurring fact of modem life.1 So, too, are the mishaps involving police vehicles or the vehicles pu

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Next Generation Information Technology
The effect of the smoothing filter on an image encrypted by the blowfish algorithm then hiding it in a BMP image
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order to increase the level of security, as this system encrypts the secret image before sending it through the internet to the recipient (by the Blowfish method). As The Blowfish method is known for its efficient security; nevertheless, the encrypting time is long. In this research we try to apply the smoothing filter on the secret image which decreases its size and consequently the encrypting and decrypting time are decreased. The secret image is hidden after encrypting it into another image called the cover image, by the use of one of these two methods" Two-LSB" or" Hiding most bits in blue pixels". Eventually we compare the results of the two methods to determine which one is better to be used according to the PSNR measurs

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 16 2025
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Networks And Systems
The Extent to Which Public Relations Departments in Government Institutions Use Artificial Intelligence Applications in Their Communication Activities: A Field Study
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Abstract This study explores the extent to which public relations (PR) departments within Traqj governmental institutions are integrating artificial intelligence (AI) applications into their communication activities. The research adresses the growing importanc of AI in enhancing administrative efficieney, communication transparency, and stakeholder engagement. Adopting a descriptive research design, the study relied on an electtonic questionnaire distributed to PR profesionals across various ministries and government bodies, collecting 100 valid responses. The indings reveal that while younger PR practitioners are actively embracing AI, older employees show limited engagement. Most participants acquired AI-related skills through self- learn

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Plain Language Movement and Legal Translation : An Analytical Study of Two Translations of a Contract of Lease from Arabic into English
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The present paper addresses one of the most challenging topics in translation; namely legal translation in the framework of two different approaches; the classical (formal) and the more recent (functional). The latter approach is the outcome of the process of simplifying legal language known technically as Plain Language Movement. The advent of this movement dates back to the 1950s, in response to the widely-held complain about the awkwardness of the legal register. Within this framework, the salient features of legal language, at the various linguistic and textual levels, underwent reconsideration in favor of more publicly digested expressions. The paper then subjects two translations of a lease contract to analysis in the ligh

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2025
Journal Name
The Peerian Journal
The Effect of Environmental Factors on Plant Growth: An Analytical Study of Environmental Variables and Their Physiological Response – A Review Article
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The essay discusses how different environmental factors affect plant growth by explaining how each factor affects the physiological processes within the plant. The essay begins by explaining the effect of temperature on plant growth, as high or low temperatures can significantly affect the rate of photosynthesis and lead to a reduction in water and nutrient absorption. It also discusses the light intensity impacting plants because the more appropriate the light intensity is, the more enhanced the plant's photosynthesis ability, and in the excess or insufficient light condition, the growth can be inhibited. Additionally, the article outlines the effect of water shortage on the plant because this leads to the closure of stomata to avoid water

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 04 2021
Journal Name
Plant Science Today
Isolation, characterization and quantification of a pentacyclic triterpinoid compound ursolic acid in Scabiosa palaestina L. distributed in the north of Iraq
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Ursolic acid (UA, 3 ?-hydroxy-urs-12-en-28-oic acid) are isomeric triterpenic acids. The high quantities of pentacyclic triterpenoids in Scabiosa species seems to be obvious and there is an evidence that most of pentacyclic triterpenoids that have been isolated are saponins. This is one of the most important characteristic of the genus Scabiosa, the main aglycones are ursolic acid and oleanolic acid. In the current study, isolation from the aerial part and roots of Scabiosa palaestina L. was performed using Preparative HPLC. Furthermore, detection and quantitation of ursolic acid was performed by high performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC). The identification of isolated triterpenoid involves two methods including FT-IR coupl

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of the financial Statements in Achieving of the Banking Supervision: An Applied Study in A sample of Iraqi Banks
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Banks are considered the main basis of financial sector ,so they must be submitted to sound and strict regulatory system and so as to ensure their operations and according to instructions and regulations , in order to maintain the integrity of the banking sector and financial sector in general .One of the importance regulatory tools that are adopted by the Iraqi Central Bank to control over the banks an financial and periodic statements that are provided by the banks in accordance with planned schedules .The financial statements of the banks must reflect clearly and accurately financial situation and the result of their activities during the period in which they represent to achiveing its purposes.So it has the goal of Search is statemen

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Study the electronic and spectroscopic properties of ALxB7-XN7 Wurtzoids as a function of size and concentration using density functional theory
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Electronic properties including (bond length, energy gap, HOMO, LUMO and density of state) as well as spectroscopic properties such like infrared, Raman scattering, force constant, reduced mass and longitu- dinal optical mode as a function of frequency are based on size and concentration of the molecular and nanostructures of aluminum nitride ALN, boron nitride BN and AlxB7-XN7 as nanotubes has calculated using Ab –initio approximation method dependent on density functional theory and generalized gradient approximation. The geometrical structure are calculated by using Gauss view 05 as a complementary program. Shows the energy gap of ALN, BN and AlxB7-XN7 as a function of the total number of atoms , start from smallest molecule to reached

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Malaysia and the countries of the Middle East are a vision towards understanding the factors affecting the pattern of the relationship
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Malaysia is linked to the countries of the Middle East by a historical relationship identified by a number of factors and determinants that affected the developments of that relationship, especially its relentless endeavor to preserve its Islamic identity with the leadership of the rest of the other ethnicities, in addition to those factors and international determinants that directly affected the typicality of this relationship and perhaps the United States stands At the forefront of who represents this international variable, as it is considered the Middle East region as a core region and within its vital field, and therefore any analog relationship in the field of international relations and one of its parties is the countries of the

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
The Sensitivity of Immunohistochemical Expression of p53 as an Indicator of the Malignant Potential of Gastric Hyperplastic Polyps: A Retrospective Study
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Background: Hyperplastic polyps account for 30–93% of gastric polyps. Recently, there have been studies about the development of dysplasia in this type of polyp. Every cell in the body contains the p53 gene, which has anti-cancer properties. Objective: The sensitivity of immunohistochemical expression of p53 is evaluated among gastric hyperplastic polyps with and without dysplasia and gastric adenomatous polyps to know its usefulness as a diagnostic marker. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was done on fifty formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks of gastric polyps (44 hyperplastic polyps without dysplasia, 3 hyperplastic polyps with dysplasia, and 3 adenomas). Cases were collected from the archives of the pathology d

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