The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to conf

يعد ( التحريض) من الوظائف المهمة التي يضطلع بها المسرح لدى جميع الشعوب التي لاتجد فضاءاً متكاملا للتفكير الحر، لابل هو حتى لدى الشعوب التي تتمتع أو تدعي التمتع بفضاء واسع للحرية والديمقراطية ولعل هذه الوظيفة ليست صنيعة مسرح الآن وإنما هي امتداد لعصور مسرحية موغلة في القدم، إلا إن مايميز هذه الوظيفة هو المظهر الذي تبدو فيه ، إذ إنها محكومة بطبيعة الحياة الاجتماعية والسياسية وبطبيعة المجتمع نفسه من حيث فاعلية

تنطلق مشكلة البحث الحالي من دراسة ماهية العلاقة المتغيرة ما بين الادراك كونه العملية التي تسهم بقسط كبير في تعرف مكونات البيئة المحيطة بنا ومعطياتها وكيفية التكيف معها وبين التذوق الفني والحكم الجمالي اللذين يعتمدان اساساً في نشؤوهما على عملية ادراك المعطيات الحسية للوسيط المادي المتمثل بالعمل الفني فالتذوق الفني والحكم الجمالي يتأثران بالمستوى الادراكي والخبرات المعرفية وتراكمها للافراد, لذلك تظهر أخ

   In this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).

The comparing is between a method uses time domain and another uses frequency domain when the data contain outlier value for autoregressive model of order one AR(1) , or Markov Model, when the time series are stationary and non stationary with deferent samples .    

Abstract The League of Arab States took many procedures against the Syrian political system, like suspended Syria's membership in the League of Arab States and sent a team of Arab observers headed by Dabi to discuss the situation there and issued some decisions and statements that called the Syrian regime to stop the use of violence and repression against the Syrian opposition.Through these steps, the Arab League has tried to help the Syrian parties to resolve the crisis. However, the role of the league in the Syrian crisis was characterized by weakness in general, and lack of seriousness, which contributed in the aggravation of the situation in Syria, and the intervention of major powers in the internal affairs of Syria.

This research aims to explain the effect of the imported inflation (which moves through the raise of global prices to Iraqi economy) over local prices, besides, the recognition the most important channels of imported inflation moving, its causes, effects, ways and policies that reduce the negative effects. To achieve the research aim, the deductive approach was adopted through using descriptive method to describe and determine phenomenon. The most important conclusion is that the research found out that there are two channels to transmission imported inflation in world. The first channel is the direct channel (prices) and the second channel is the indirect (income). The most important recommendation is to create sovereign fund (O

The research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM  in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS

   تناول البحث صور تقديم المستثنى ، فجاء البحث بعنوان ( صور تقديم المستثنى بين المنع والجواز )) وقد قسمت البحث على ثلاث صور وأحوال لتقديم المستثنى ولكل صورة حكمها النحوي ، ولكل حال من احوال التقديم موقف ورأي للنحويين بين مجيز ومانع

الصورة الأولى : أن يتقدّم المستثنى وأداة الاستثناء على المستثنى منه ، وهذه الصورة من مسائل الخلاف بين البصريين والكوفيين ، اذ أجازها الكوفيون ، بينم

الموسيقى العربية ترفيه ام ثقافة بين الماضي والحاضر

The study aimed to monitor the concept of reputation in the previous literature, its relationship to mental image and identity, and to reveal recent trends in its measurement Techniques.

    The study relied on a descriptive approach using library survey and comparative analysis, and the study reached following conclusions:

     Despite the beginning of the first signs of reputation In the fifties of the last century, however, Defining and standardizing the concept with clear and specific dimensions began in the 1990s and the beginning of the third millennium. The concept of reputation refers to the stakeholders’ overall evaluation of organizations, which reflects their perceptions of