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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Role of the executive in federal experiences: a study of selected models
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Receipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of composite variance of experiments carried out according to design Latin box
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We know that the experiments which conducted by latin square in one location or in one period (season), but there are many cases that need to conduct the same experiments in many locations or in many periods (seasons) to study the interaction  between the treatments and locations or between the treatments and periods (seasons) .In this research we present  an idea for  conduct  the experiment in several locations and in many period (seasons) by using LSD , it represent  acontribution in the area of design and analysis of experiments ,we had written. we had written (theoretically)  the general plans, the mathematical models for these experiments, and finding the derivations of EMS for each component (

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Unipolarity and Its Influences in American Foreign Policy and the Future International Relations: Unipolarity and Its Influences in American Foreign Policy and the Future International Relations
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Abstract
The concept of unipolar has allowed the united states of America to
control the rest of the internations community units through the rxclusively of
control in international affairs without enabling other countries who have the
ability to compete with it to appear this comes as a result of it's position to all
kinds of powers like military, economic and technical powers that enable it to
continue dominating other countries, this superior control enabled it to be the
(hyper power) on the international political scene so that it allowed it to
exercise and implement the policy of domination against all this appeared
after its empire superiority became clear, in a unique way that have never
been known in

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 02 2009
Journal Name
Noise And Health
Expert system to predict effects of noise pollution on operators of power plant using neuro-fuzzy approach
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Ration power plants, to generate power, have become common worldwide. One such one is the steam power plant. In such plants, various moving parts of heavy machines generate a lot of noise. Operators are subjected to high levels of noise. High noise level exposure leads to psychological as well physiological problems; different kinds of ill effects. It results in deteriorated work efficiency, although the exact nature of work performance is still unknown. To predict work efficiency deterioration, neuro-fuzzy tools are being used in research. It has been established that a neuro-fuzzy computing system helps in identification and analysis of fuzzy models. The last decade has seen substantial growth in development of various neuro-fuzzy systems

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Artificial Neural Network to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties in Nasiriya Oil Field
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   The time spent in drilling ahead is usually a significant portion of total well cost. Drilling is an expensive operation including the cost of equipment and material used during the penetration of rock plus crew efforts in order to finish the well without serious problems. Knowing the rate of penetration should help in speculation of the cost and lead to optimize drilling outgoings. Ten wells in the Nasiriya oil field have been selected based on the availability of the data. Dynamic elastic properties of Mishrif formation in the selected wells were determined by using Interactive Petrophysics (IP V3.5) software based on the las files and log record provided. The average rate of penetration and average dynamic elastic propert

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Performance evaluation of the Iraq Stock Exchange market under the financial losses of terrorism for the years 2010-2015
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The Research topic seeks to analyze the "political risk and its component Terrorism Index," which consists of five indicators index, a number of terrorist operations, and the number of dead and wounded, and the size of the physical losses, based search sub-index analysis of material losses for the index terrorism and its impact on the indicators listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange Finance. As for the practical side, it has been use style gradient unrestricted and link the sample represented by ten banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. was Statement the correlation and interaction of variables of the studySearch results produced that the volume of material losses is the most important indicator in the influential force and it explain a v

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of organizational learning ability to improve the performance of hospital organizations under the accumulation of intellectual capital Study hospital enterprise sector in Algeria
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        This study aims to identify the amount of the effect of the ability to learn the individuals within the organization on the accumulation of intellectual capital and the role it plays in improving the performance of the organization, and to achieve that, the researcher designed a questionnaire to collect data and information from the surveyed respondents and analyzed using SPSS software, the study concluded after testing hypotheses to have a direct impact between the capacity for organizational learning and the accumulation of intellectual capital, which in turn affects the accumulation of intellectual capital as a positive and direct impact on the performance of the organization, al

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study of the marketing supply chain of the fuel oil productUsing transport models
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The marketing logistic chain, as an integrated system aimed to balance the achievement of its main opposite objectives which represented in the access to the best service presented to the customer with lowest possible logistic costs especially the transportation costs, where encourages the researcher to choose the second objective as a field of this study in order to reduce the transportation costs in the final link of marketing logistic chain which related to delivering of fuel oil to the customer that falls within organizational responsibilities of the company under consideration (Oil Marketing Company) and also known in a brief name by (SOMO) through two methods, the first is by functioning quantative techniques by using trans

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Extent to which Islamic Education Teachers and their Teachers Teach Technological Innovations in Universities
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The aim of the study is to investigate the extent to which the teachers of Islamic education and their teachers taught the technological innovations in the universities and to test the significance of the differences between the averages of the degree of practice according to the variables: gender, experience, scientific qualification, and educational stage. To achieve these objectives, a questionnaire consisting of (20) (20) teacher and school, teachers of Islamic education in Iraqi universities.

   The results indicated that the degree of the practice of Islamic education teachers and their teachers of technological innovations was moderate, and there were statistically significant differences in the variable of

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
The Degree of Commitment of Social Workers Who Work in the ‎Ministry of Social Development to the Professional Principles of ‎the Social Work Profession under the Corona Pandemic
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The study aimed to identify the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of the social work profession in light of the Corona pandemic, and the sample consisted of (135) specialists. The study reached several results: the most important one is  the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of social service was great. The other result is the absence of statistically significant differences according to the variables of sex and place of residence. Moreover, the results also showed the absence of statistically significant differences in the principles of ( Acceptance o

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