In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation) structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of these procedures and compare them using generated data.
Exponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.
In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us
... Show MoreA mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the
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In 2020 one of the researchers in this paper, in his first research, tried to find out the Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I by using the Azzalini method for weighted distributions, which contain three parameters, two of them for scale while the third for shape.This research compared the distribution with two other distributions from the same family; the Standard Pareto Distribution of Type I and the Generalized Pareto Distribution by using the Maximum likelihood estimator which was derived by the researchers for Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I, then the Mont Carlo method was used–that is one of the simulation manners for generating random samples data in different sizes ( n= 10,30,50), and in di
... Show MoreThis paper deals with defining Burr-XII, and how to obtain its p.d.f., and CDF, since this distribution is one of failure distribution which is compound distribution from two failure models which are Gamma model and weibull model. Some equipment may have many important parts and the probability distributions representing which may be of different types, so found that Burr by its different compound formulas is the best model to be studied, and estimated its parameter to compute the mean time to failure rate. Here Burr-XII rather than other models is consider because it is used to model a wide variety of phenomena including crop prices, household income, option market price distributions, risk and travel time. It has two shape-parame
... Show MoreThe vast advantages of 3D modelling industry have urged competitors to improve capturing techniques and processing pipelines towards minimizing labour requirements, saving time and reducing project risk. When it comes to digital 3D documentary and conserving projects, laser scanning and photogrammetry are compared to choose between the two. Since both techniques have pros and cons, this paper approaches the potential issues of individual techniques in terms of time, budget, accuracy, density, methodology and ease to use. Terrestrial laser scanner and close-range photogrammetry are tested to document a unique invaluable artefact (Lady of Hatra) located in Iraq for future data fusion sc
Each project management system aims to complete the project within its identified objectives: budget, time, and quality. It is achieving the project within the defined deadline that required careful scheduling, that be attained early. Due to the nature of unique repetitive construction projects, time contingency and project uncertainty are necessary for accurate scheduling. It should be integrated and flexible to accommodate the changes without adversely affecting the construction project’s total completion time. Repetitive planning and scheduling methods are more effective and essential. However, they need continuous development because of the evolution of execution methods, essent
Shear and compressional wave velocities, coupled with other petrophysical data, are vital in determining the dynamic modules magnitude in geomechanical studies and hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. But, due to field practices and high running cost, shear wave velocity may not available in all wells. In this paper, a statistical multivariate regression method is presented to predict the shear wave velocity for Khasib formation - Amara oil fields located in South- East of Iraq using well log compressional wave velocity, neutron porosity and density. The accuracy of the proposed correlation have been compared to other correlations. The results show that, the presented model provides accurate
... Show MoreThis deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values
The physical and elastic characteristics of rocks determine rock strengths in general. Rock strength is frequently assessed using porosity well logs such as neutron and sonic logs. The essential criteria for estimating rock mechanic parameters in petroleum engineering research are uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus. Indirect estimation using well-log data is necessary to measure these variables. This study attempts to create a single regression model that can accurately forecast rock mechanic characteristics for the Harth Carbonate Formation in the Fauqi oil field. According to the findings of this study, petrophysical parameters are reliable indexes for determining rock mechanical properties having good performance p
... Show MoreThe technology of reducing dimensions and choosing variables are very important topics in statistical analysis to multivariate. When two or more of the predictor variables are linked in the complete or incomplete regression relationships, a problem of multicollinearity are occurred which consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with incorrect estimates results.
There are several methods proposed to address this problem, including the partial least squares (PLS), used to reduce dimensional regression analysis. By using linear transformations that convert a set of variables associated with a high link to a set of new independent variables and unr
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