Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This study aims to design unified  electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed  the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of  using papers to count absence,  with  a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.

            In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst

Departments and offices of public relations and media in any institution or company is the most important departments that reflect the results of their work negatively or positively on their reputation. This goes beyond the trust and credibility that its internal and external audiences will give it. Where such matter requires the staff, working in these departments and offices, to have communication skills that qualify them to do the role of marketing the communication message. Yet, the communication skills of public relations and media staff vary from person to person depending on the communication position. This skill has two criteria: Achieving the communication goal and the speed in achieving it as a number of skills

There is no doubt that the narrative form is a mixture of many elements that it
becomes so hard to differentiate between them. Thus, to differentiate between those
elements we must understand the job of every element; and that is the structure of narrative
form in the artistic frame of the old Arabic poem.
Poetry, as the readers confirm, is strongly related to a lot of arts. The rhetorical
form is related to the art of drawing and photography, the rhythm- the core of poetry- is
related to music, its structure to the art of architecture, its tension to drama as it consist of
internal conflict between its elements and ingredients, and the poetry has a narrative
element which relates it to the art of narration and it

يعد الرثاء أساساً من أسس الموروث الشعري العربي، وهو باب من أبواب الشعر الرئيسة. وقد وجد الإنسان فيه بغيته في التعبير عن مكنون نفسه ساعة تكتظ بالألم، ومنفذاً يخرج منه لواعجه وأشجانه إلى الخارج في شكل تعبيري يحرر الدمعة، ويعاتب الموت. والرثاء غرض متطور ينمو مع نمو المجتمع والحياة ويسجل التغيير الذي يحصل في كل مرحلة من مراحل التاريخ، وهو نتيجة مهمة من نتائج اصطدام الشاعر بالحياة والأحداث. لهذا وقع اختياري على شع

The Andoluosian literatures has been captured my mind, and had a very
pure and great place in my spirit, which is remembering me the roots of
genuine Arabic civilization spread during eight century in endoluos region.
also the Arabic creation which is moved from east to far way land in that
ages. And very clearly appearance tremendous men interested in science and
all kind of literature and arts especially in poetry, no one who has taste and
minimum knowledge can denied the effect of indoluosan prosperity among
readers. So for that reason I work very hard to choose a very famous poet his
nick name (Al-Ramadee) he is Youseif Bin Haroon born in the first decade
of the 4TH hijri (Islamic Calendar), died in (403H).

This research is a rhetorical study that sheds light on theme
prominent of central identified as custom poet of MUDAFAR AL NAWAB
political and national' that "wine "that themes which had a prominent
presence and intense in his poetry .and objective of this research is to detect
the aesthetic performance ALNAWABY in which he put to categorization
"wine" ,through observation of manifestation the presence of winey. And
related scream the images and the meaning of talking semantics base to
move in the spaces of the text and have built our study on three topics: we
started The first research with lexicon russet in the processes of counting
and analysis of the semantics wine in the office of the poet trying to reveal

Literary heritage and its employment in poetry has received the attention of poets, and they have employed it in their literary texts, as this employment is one of the oldest phenomena in Arabic literature, that the inspiration of this heritage in texts through the overlap of their texts with previous texts, and no poet neglected the importance of this employment.  The ancient critics determined that the poet’s special culture is represented in the necessity of taking from the ancients, and this taking is the reference from which the poet draws his material and idea, as well as to clarify the meaning and its significance