Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines  estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property  to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a

This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec

The research aimed to prepare a psychological counseling program for the coaches of the Sports Care Center in the gymnasium, and to learn about the impact of the psychological counseling program in reducing irrational ideas and causal attribution of the coaches of the Sports Talent Care Center in the gymnasium, to assume that there are statistically significant differences between the results of the tribal and posttests of the research group Experimental in the scale of irrational ideas, and there are statistically significant differences between the results of the tribal and posttests of the experimental research group in the scale of the causal attribution scale, The experimental approach was adopted by designing one experimental

This work aims to investigate the inhibition of vitality of Streptococcus mutans, which is the causative agent of caries. A 632.8 nm He-Ne laser with the output power of 4.5mW was used in combination with toluidine blue O (TBO) at the concentration of 50μg/ml as a photosensitizer. Streptococcus mutans was isolated from 35 patients if carious teeth. Three isolates were chosen and exposed to different energy densities of He – Ne laser light 3.8, 11.7, 34.5 and 104.1 J/cm². After irradiation, substantial reduction was observed in the number of colony forming units (CFU)/ ml. The reduction in the number of CFU was increasing as the dose increased.

New vision of Mr. Abdul Mahdi Al-Muttafiqi in the light of unpublished documents

The study aims to reveal the degree of application of the alternative evaluation strategy in social studies in public education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It also aims to identify the opinions of experts on how to implement this. The study adopted the mixed methodology, which represented in the descriptive-analytical method, and qualitative methods through the grounded theory. The study used two tools namely: a questionnaire for assessments of social studies teachers and semi-structured interview questions. The results of the study showed a medium degree of appreciation for the application of alternative evaluation strategies by social studies teachers in general education with an average of (2.28). The results also showed that ther

        The study hypothesize that the majority of Arab countries  show a poor agricultural economic efficiency which resulted in a weak productive capacity of wheat in the face of the demand, which in turn led to the fluctuation of the rate of self-sufficiency and thus increase the size of the food gap. The study aims at estimating and analyzing the food security indicators for their importance in shaping the Arabic agricultural policy, which aims to achieve food security through domestic production and reduce the import of food to less possible extent. Some of the most important results reached by the study were that the increase in the amount of consumption of wheat in the countries of t

The study aims to identify the effectiveness of employing microteaching in acquiring teaching skills of students teaching basic stage in Al-Aqsa University. The two researchers used the experimental method and a quota sample consisted of a group of (80) students who were distributed on the university two branches in Gaza and Khan younis and on males and females equally, and on four teaching courses counted (20) students for each. The study tool represented in an observation card ,and the results showed statistically significant differences between the level of all the skills of teaching and between the standard rate (75%) in favor of teaching skills, also showed statistically significant differences attributed to the variable of the univ

The current research aims to determine the extent of the impact of the strategic direction to the  business process reengineering, in the Office of the Ministry of Oil To reach that goal was a sample of community research study consisted (50) members of the senior leadership represent the problem in organization researched in the ambiguity of the strategic direction of knowledge of the compatibility of the strategic direction with Business Process Reengineering and   used questionnaire, interview and  observation to obtain the information needed to search was addressing data by the statistical system spss percentage  and the arithmetic mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation .