The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Abstract:

    Federico Garcia Lorca is considered in european and american literary circles as revolutionary symbol of contemporary literature writer through close association with the concerns of his country and the world, and also through the violent propensity to freedom, emancipation and innovation. This personal multi-talent has a significant impact in the spanish literary movement, in particularly, and in world, in general. If Lorca has andalusia blood, is no stranger to contemporary arab man to read to him, and contemplates his experience analyst and literary critic. This research is serious study of this character. There is no doubt the reader will put in front of many facts about personali

Man was closely associated with nature in its various forms, as it represented the incubator for him in all areas of his life, so writers often made it a material for their literature and a fertile ground for their productions, so it appeared in its various forms and man’s need for it, its good and its bad in literature throughout history, and the Arabs are like Other nations, since the pre-Islamic era, nature was an important outlet and a refuge for poets in the production and creativity of literature and to this day, and when we talk about a poet from the Fatimid state, we find that nature - especially spring and its flowers - in that period took its take from literature and represented a phenomenon for many Among the

Our research which is under the name "Polarization and Communication mechanism in the formation of green industrial products " The problem of the research focuses in identifying what is polarization and its function mechanisms , by displaying the inventive and creative cases of the designer in how to exploit the industrial products and its recycling process to attract the user and recipient by asserting on the values of beauty of the appearance of the industrial product with the attraction Of the user and the recipient with the new function of that product and how its different from the function achieved by the old product , with consideration of nature and its preservation . The results of the research were as following : The designer e

 The form imposes its importance in the structure of the artwork through its indication of the type of relationship between the artist and his external world in all its aspects, as well as its manifestation of artistic and aesthetic values, and the multiplicity of experimental means of expression that include the artist's feelings and imagination. The form is also a recording of the events in their temporal and spatial circumstances, and in that it is of value in directing his artistic discourse with the aim of influencing the recipient with its connotations and emotional states. Horses in the drawings of Amer Al-Obaidi, and the research came within two frameworks: The first framework is the methodological framework that represents us t

Described the Arabic language being of genius sets by top models of eloquence , rhetoric and clarity of sounds and developments Moreover , it is an important element of our existence and our identity and our survival . That my methods and best in teaching Arabic language what has pursued the easiest ways to learning and teaching and helped learners to be aware of the function linguistic information , and they need it and its impact on their lives , and contributed to unleashing the potential of activism and led them to make the effort to apply them in the form of examples and uses of new life , as well as fits are the capabilities and tendencies of different learners , so the goal of current research into the importance of the curriculum

Аннотация

      В статье считается национально-культурная специфика и языковое изменчивость выражения заключений в художественном тексте. В настоящее время в изучении художественного текста существует множество взаимодополняющих подходов и концепций, которые способствуют лучшему пониманию его языковых и культурных аспектов. Художественный текст как «воспроизведение» и от

    Complexity is the inherent characteristic of contemporary organizations. It is characterized by the intertwining and expansion of its relations, by the severe disorder and rapid change in its environment, which makes it suffer from a state of uncertainty in determining the direction of its future or the assessment of the rules governing its paths. All organizations tend to evolve with increasing sophistication, And to take measures that contribute to the simplification of the system as it moves towards complexity, allowing the administration to easily control its movement and directions, and the problem of complexity in the university is based on the entanglement and overlap in the goals and processes betwe

Concurrently with the technological development that the world is witnessing the crime of money laundering to evolve faster and with multiple methods and its economic, political and social impacts raised increasingly. And for phenomenon dangerous the international community in recent years is keen to be considered combating money laundering as a general indication whereby verification of the international response the stats and its banks and financial institutions with international requirements mandated in this aspect, so the increasing interest the governments of countries in the laws and procedures that contribute to the reduction of the phenomenon of money laundering and avoid legislation economy and the banking and financial sectors