The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

The aim of this study is to develop the science textbook for the 1st intermediate grade by analyzing it according to life skills. Its core areas were mental skills, environmental skills, and health skills. The analysis tool was used after verifying its validity and stability in analyzing the science textbook for the 1st intermediate grade, and the results of the study resulted in the inclusion of mental skills on a high percentage of repetitions, while we find that this percentage is low in the inclusion of environmental and health skills. The study recommended the importance of achieving balance and justice in including skills in the science textbook for the 1st intermediate grade, by emphasizing the environmental and health skills by incr

This study presented an endeavour to integrate the value chain activities with the Balanced Scorecard for a comprehensive evaluation of an organization’s strategic performance. It also demonstrated the connection and the integration of the activities of the value chain with the Balanced Scorecard. The financial measurement was linked with non-financial measurement by integrating these techniques to achieve an appropriate performance that supports all aspects of the organizational performance. Consequently, the research problem in this study emerged, which is due to the concentration of many organizations on the measurement of financial performance. Notably, the latter caused the decline of some organizations from the competitive market. T

The study aimed to measure the phsycological tolerance and self-efficacy among the students of Baghdad university and knon the significant differences in psychological tolerance and self-efficacy according to the variables (Gender-Specialization)and the interaction between themas well as the study aimed to identify the strength and direction of the relationship between psychological tolerance and self-efficacy of the study sampleincluded asample of the current study(370) students from grades four ,the researcher used the measure of psychological tolerance and self-efficacy prepared by the researcher ,and the results showed that college students Generally have adegree of psychological tolerance and that there are statistically sig

In this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countr

This work involves three parts ,  first part  is manufacturing different types of laminated below knee prosthetic socket materials with different classical laminated materials used in Baghdad center for prosthetic and orthotic (4perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+4 perlon layers) , two suggested laminated materials(3perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) and (3perlon layers+1carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) ) in order to choose perfect laminated socket . The second part tests (Impact test) the laminated materials specimens used in socket manufacturing in order to get the impact properties for each socket materials groups using an experimental rig designed especially for this purpose. The interface pressure between

11-22 Description An apology may be defined as “the act of declaring one’s regret, remorse or sorrow for having insulted, failed, injured, harmed or wronged another (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy IEP). A definition quite interested in the function suggests that “an apology is a speech act addressed to B’s face–needs and intended to remedy an offence for which A. takes responsibility.”(Holmes, 1990: 159). Apologies are also" speech acts" that are hard to identify, define or categorize, a difficulty that arises directly out of the functions they perform (Lakoff, 2001: 201) and the forms they take. In function, they range from selfabasement for wrongdoing to the formal display of appropriate feeling. In form, they range from

In the present work, it had been measured the concentration of radon gas (C_Rn) for (10) samples of cement used in constructions before and after painting them using enamel paint, purchased from the local markets, to see the extent of its ability to reduce emissions of Rn-222 in the air. These samples were obtained from different sources available in the local markets in Baghdad and other provinces. The measurements were done by the American-made detector (RAD7). The results showed that the highest C_Rn in the air emitted from cement samples after coating was in the cement sample (Iranian origin) where the concentration was (58.27 Bq/m³) while the lowest C_Rn was found in building material samples

The Recent days witness an in creasing importanc of Islamic Banks which stems from the wide spread in Islamic and non-Islamic countries,Especially in USA and European countries.the consideration in Islamic Banks came after the financial crisis in 2008.Islamic Banks work with conventional banks in most countries,that is,the formers may face the same risks which face the latters,that represent the larger percent of the International Banking system.the problms that may affect Islamic Banks related to many causes,some related to the working in common economic environment.others related to the possibility of simulation to the method of investment and financing in conventional Banks,this mean,the work with principles not compling with