Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong w

The aim of this study is to utilize the behavior of a mathematical model consisting of three-species with Lotka Volterra functional response with incorporating of fear and hunting cooperation factors with both juvenile and adult predators. The existence of equilibrium points of the system was discussed the conditions with variables. The behavior of model referred by local stability in nearness of any an equilibrium point and the conditions for the method of approximating the solution has been studied locally. We define a suitable Lyapunov function that covers every element of the nonlinear system and illustrate that it works. The effect of the death factor was observed in some periods, leading to non-stability. To confirm the theore

      This research investigates the type and the significant relationship between roaming management and self-efficacy and its impact on excellence in providing hotel service. To achieve this, the applied approach was adopted through  A questionnaire was designed and developed for the collected data. It has consisted of three parts. The firsts section included nine questions to measure the dimensions of management by roaming. The second section includes nine questions to measure the effectiveness of the two employees. The last section includes   12   questions to measure the excellence of the hotel service. The research sample included  43  employees' responding to this

Antibiotic resistance is the capability of the strains to resist or protect themselves from the effects of an antibiotic. Such a resistance towards the current antimicrobials leads to the search of novel antimicrobials. Nanotechnology has been promising in different field of science and among it is the use of nanoparticles as antibacterial agents. The gastrointestinal tract seems to be the primary reservoir of uropathogenic E.coli (UPEC) in humans. UPEC strains harbour the urinary tract and cause urinary tract infection. They cause serious ailments in terms of humans. They develop resistance and increase their virulence by forming biofilms. They also show a remarkable locomotory movement with the aid of autoinducer controlled ge

The phenomenon of informal building Spread recently in Iraqi residential areas, in general, and in Baghdad, in particular, due to the urgent housing need, on the one hand, and lack of commitment to building controls, on the other hand, to highlight the phenomenon of uncommitted building to controls and housing governing legislation in Iraq, leading to heterogeneity in both building densities and plot areas, and disorder in the urban fabric and urban escape of those areas. Research problem identified as the absence of a clear vision about the General aspects of the phenomenon of informal building in residential street scene, and the role of designed housing projects as a substitute for informal building in built residential areas. The des

The research aims to measure the extent of the impact of Earnings quality in the continuity of the company for a sample of private commercial banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The research sample included (15) of the listed commercial banks that continue to issue their financial statements for the period from (2009-2018).The research relied on three main models of measurement and on four steps. The first step is to measure the Persistence (Earnings Quality) by Depending the sustainability model. While the second step included measuring the Predictability of accounting profits by deriving the square root of the disparity of the estimation error from the first model Persistence (Earnings Quality), and the third step included

Diyala Governorate has many unique and diverse geomorphological features that the region enjoys, which are among the attractions for natural tourism, as the natural environment is considered a maker of tourism. The importance of geomorphological aspects as components of natural tourism is due to their association with tourism and entertainment, as a result of the enjoyment of many geomorphological aspects of the beauty of its natural landscape on the one hand, and on the other hand, the association of these manifestations with different types of tourism activity. Any tourist area as it is the main factor for tourist attractions, such as the presence of the Hamrin hills, and sand dunes. Planning for the development of tourism activity in the

Production of fatty acid esters (biodiesel) from oleic acid and 2-ethylhexanol using sulfated zirconia as solid catalyst for the production of biodiesel was investigated in this work.

       The parameters studied were temperature of reaction (100 to 130°C), molar ratio of alcohol to free fatty acid (1:1 to 3:1), concentration of catalyst (0.5 to 3%wt), mixing speed (500 to 900 rpm) and types of sulfated zirconia (i.e modified, commercial, prepared  catalyst according to literature and reused catalyst). The results show the best conversion to biodiesel was 97.74% at conditions of 130°C, 3:1, 2wt% and 650 rpm using modified catalyst respectively. Also, modified c