Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Background : Shoulder pain is a common problem that can pose difficult diagnostic and therapeutic challenges for the family physician It is the third most common musculoskeletal complaint in the general population, and account for 5% of all general practitioners musculoskeletal consults
Objective: To determine the diagnostic performance of ultrasonography compared with the physical examination for detection of rotator cuff tears in painful shoulder syndrome.
Method: Prospective study was done on seventy patients (48 male, 22 female), age ranged between 30-70 years (mean age 50 years), From February 2007 to July 2011, were subjected to comparative study in Al-Kindy teaching hospital with rotator cuff tears, including physical and ul

In order to obtain a mixed model with high significance and accurate alertness, it is necessary to search for the method that performs the task of selecting the most important variables to be included in the model, especially when the data under study suffers from the problem of multicollinearity as well as the problem of high dimensions. The research aims to compare some methods of choosing the explanatory variables and the estimation of the parameters of the regression model, which are Bayesian Ridge Regression (unbiased) and the adaptive Lasso regression model, using simulation. MSE was used to compare the methods.

Background: Gray-scale sonography is generally
considered as a first-line diagnostic tool for patient with
suspected acute cholecystitis. It is suggested by gallstones,
Murphy's sign, thickening of the gallbladder wall and bile
sludging, but the specificity of these sonographic findings
are not as high as their sensitivity. Blood flow of the
gallbladder wall is increased in acute inflammation.
Objective: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of
power Doppler sonography and compared with conventional
color Doppler and gray-scale sonography in diagnosing
patients with acute cholecystitis.
Type of the study: This was a cross sectional study.
Patients and methods: The study was conducted t

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Background and objectives: This study aimed at testing the effect of plastic sleeve or barrier, used to cover the guide of the light cure unit to prevent cross-infection, on the shear bond strength and site of bond failure of stainless steel and ceramic orthodontic brackets. Materials and methods: Forty orthodontic brackets; twenty stainless steel and twenty ceramic brackets bonded to forty extracted human maxillary first premolars using light cure adhesive cured with and without the use of a protective plastic barrier on the guide. Comparing the effect of this barrier on the shear bond strength and adhesive remnant index was performed using an independent t-test and Chi-square test. Results: The protective barrier had decreased the shear b

Background: The microhardness of a composite resin is a vital parameter that is used to determine its clinical behavior. Measuring the microhardness of a composite resin has been used as an indirect method to assess its degree of conversion and extent of polymerization. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the effect of three curing distances (0, 2, and 4 mm) on the microhardness of the top and bottom surfaces of three types of flowable bulk-fill composite resins (smart dentin replacement, Opus bulk fill flow, and Tetric N). Material and method: Sixty-three specimens from the three types of composite resins (n=21) were fabricated using Teflon mold with a 4mm depth and a 5 mm internal diameter and cured for 20 seconds. For e

A novel demountable shear connector is proposed to link a concrete slab to steel sections in a way that resulting steel-concrete composite floor is demountable, i.e. it can be easily dismantled at the end of its service life. The proposed connectors consist of two parts: the first part is a hollow steel tube with internal threads at its lower end. The second part is a compatible partially threaded bolted stud. After linking the stud to the steel section, the hollow steel tube can be fastened over the threaded stud, which create a complete demountable shear connector. The connector is suitable for use in both composite bridges and buildings, and using cast in-situ slabs, precast solid slabs, or hollow-core precast slabs. A series of push-off