Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
Test anxiety for intermediate level The current study aims to measure the test anxiety of research’s sample and to identify the statistical differences of test anxiety, considering two variables gender and students classes level (first and third intermediate class). To do this, a stratified random sampling of (300) student from first and third intermediate classes had selected from both the karkh and Rusafa sides of Baghdad province for the academic year 2015-2016. The author tested the whole sample by using the test anxiety scale that had tested for its validity and reliability. The results revealed that the research’s sample as a whole was suffering from test anxiety, there were a statistical differences between male and female tha
... Show MoreIn this study, we used Bayesian method to estimate scale parameter for the normal distribution. By considering three different prior distributions such as the square root inverted gamma (SRIG) distribution and the non-informative prior distribution and the natural conjugate family of priors. The Bayesian estimation based on squared error loss function, and compared it with the classical estimation methods to estimate the scale parameter for the normal distribution, such as the maximum likelihood estimation and th
... Show MoreThe aim of this paper to find Bayes estimator under new loss function assemble between symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, namely, proposed entropy loss function, where this function that merge between entropy loss function and the squared Log error Loss function, which is quite asymmetric in nature. then comparison a the Bayes estimators of exponential distribution under the proposed function, whoever, loss functions ingredient for the proposed function the using a standard mean square error (MSE) and Bias quantity (Mbias), where the generation of the random data using the simulation for estimate exponential distribution parameters different sample sizes (n=10,50,100) and (N=1000), taking initial
... Show MoreIn this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical method to estimate reliability function of three systems : k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be
... Show MoreThe useful of remote sensing techniques in Environmental Engineering and another science is to save time, Coast and efforts, also to collect more accurate information under monitoring mechanism. In this research a number of statistical models were used for determining the best relationships between each water quality parameter and the mean reflectance values generated for different channels of radiometer operate simulated to the thematic Mappar satellite image. Among these models are the regression models which enable us to as certain and utilize a relation between a variable of interest. Called a dependent variable; and one or more independent variables
Experimental activity coefficients at infinite dilution are particularly useful for calculating the parameters needed in an expression for the excess Gibbs energy. If reliable values of γ∞1 and γ∞2 are available, either from direct experiment or from a correlation, it is possible to predict the composition of the azeotrope and vapor-liquid equilibrium over the entire range of composition. These can be used to evaluate two adjustable constants in any desired expression for G E. In this study MOSCED model and SPACE model are two different methods were used to calculate γ∞1 and γ∞2
The cross section evaluation for (α,n) reaction was calculated according to the available International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other experimental published data . These cross section are the most recent data , while the well known international libraries like ENDF , JENDL , JEFF , etc. We considered an energy range from threshold to 25 M eV in interval (1 MeV). The average weighted cross sections for all available experimental and theoretical(JENDL) data and for all the considered isotopes was calculated . The cross section of the element is then calculated according to the cross sections of the isotopes of that element taking into account their abundance . A mathematical representative equation for each of the element
... Show MoreCapillary pressure is a significant parameter in characterizing and modeling petroleum reservoirs. However, costly laboratory measurements may not be sufficiently available in some cases. The problem amplifies for carbonate reservoirs because relatively enormous capillary pressure curves are required for reservoir study due to heterogeneity. In this work, the laboratory measurements of capillary pressure and formation resistivity index were correlated as both parameters are functions of saturation. Forty-one core samples from an Iraqi carbonate reservoir were used to develop the correlation according to the hydraulic flow units concept. Flow zone indicator (FZI) and Pore Geometry and Structure (PGS) approaches were used to identify
... Show MoreIntroduction: In recent decades, the endovascular treatment of cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) has advanced. However, it still carries risks of unanticipated complications. Coil migration is a reported complication of aneurysmal coiling procedures. Herein, we report a case of early intraprocedural coil migration during pressure cooker technique embolization of right thalamic AVM, discussing the management and potential explanations. The literature showed no report of coil migration after the pressure cooker technique in the form of coil-augmented Onyx injection technique (CAIT). Case description: An otherwise healthy 26-year-old female suddenly developed a severe headache with no loss of consciousness. Computed tomograp
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