Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
The estimation of quantity of liquid that is collected from gas/oil separation system is a very complex task because it requires the application of the flash calculations which needs to solve the cubic equation of state and to use some numerical techniques. These difficulties can be overcome by a computer model which requires a lot of experimental data, long time, and experience.
This paper adopts a new technique to simplify this problem. It suggests new correlations for optimum separator pressure for separation station of heavy oils. The correlations have been achieved for two- and three- stage separation systems.
The co
A study to find the optimum separators pressures of separation stations has been performed. Stage separation of oil and gas is accomplished with a series of separators operating at sequentially reduced pressures. Liquid is discharged from a higher-pressure separator into the lower-pressure separator. The set of working separator pressures that yields maximum recovery of liquid hydrocarbon from the well fluid is the optimum set of pressures, which is the target of this work.
A computer model is used to find the optimum separator pressures. The model employs the Peng-Robinson equation of state (Peng and Robinson 1976) for volatile oil. The application of t
This paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
Methods of estimating statistical distribution have attracted many researchers when it comes to fitting a specific distribution to data. However, when the data belong to more than one component, a popular distribution cannot be fitted to such data. To tackle this issue, mixture models are fitted by choosing the correct number of components that represent the data. This can be obvious in lifetime processes that are involved in a wide range of engineering applications as well as biological systems. In this paper, we introduce an application of estimating a finite mixture of Inverse Rayleigh distribution by the use of the Bayesian framework when considering the model as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We employed the Gibbs sampler and
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.
Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce
... Show MoreMixture experiments are response variables based on the proportions of component for this mixture. In our research we will compare the scheffʼe model with the kronecker model for the mixture experiments, especially when the experimental area is restricted.
Because of the experience of the mixture of high correlation problem and the problem of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, which has an effect on the calculation of the Fisher information matrix of the regression model.
to estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used the (generalized inverse ) And the Stepwise Regression procedure
... Show MoreSustainability including renewable energy and green power, is one of the important feature in recent years due to environmental constraints and the emission of CO2 from fossil fuel. Pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) process is considered one of the effective technology for power generation. This study assessed the application of pressure retarded osmosis to produce power from Tigris River water in Baghdad City, Iraq. Spiral wound TFC membrane was tested in the PRO process with different variables. The effect of different types of draw solutions (MgCl2, NaCl, Sodium Formate, KCl, Sodium Acetate), applied pressure (0 – 7 bar), and draw solution concentration (0.08 and 0.4 M) were tested in this work. The flux, recovery, and power density for
... Show MoreThe study of topography most important studies and depth of any literary or artistic text and occupy the thinking of many who work in art at generally. There is hardly any film scenario from description in general of the indispensable elements of the composition and place one. So the place starts form since the scriptwriter begins to view the result of the description begins to feature the emergence of there are simple operations in the scenario soon to receive growth as a final achievement in the film. The description of the place begins to take on an allegorical character as a language version in the script, soon translated into another language, the language of the picture. Which in turn complement the creative ring of cinematic art a
... Show MoreIn this study, the use of non-thermal plasma theory to remove toxic gases emitted from a vehicle was experimentally investigated. A non-thermal plasma reactor was constructed in the form of a cylindrical tube made of Pyrex glass. Two stainless steel rods were placed inside the tube to generate electric discharge and plasma condition, by connecting with a high voltage power supply (up to 40 kV). The reactor was used to remove the contaminants of a 1.25-liter 4-cylinder engine at ambient conditions. Several tests have been carried out for a ranging speed from 750 to 4,500 rpm of the engine and varying voltages from 0 to 32 kV. The gases entering the reactor were examined by a gas analyzer and the gases concentration ratio
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