Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
The researcher is one of the workers in university sports student activities, as he noticed that there is a diversity in the use of leadership patterns among managers of student activities in Iraqi universities between one director and another, which leads to the impact of these leadership styles on performance, positive or negative, in the level of human relations and the achievement of results. The researcher adopted the descriptive method in the survey method with relational relationships. The research sample consisted of (184) sports coaches who represent (27) universities and governmental and private colleges. To achieve the research objectives, the researcher used the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (Spss). To extract.statisti
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The current research aims to reveal the extent to which all scoring rubrics data for the electronic work file conform to the partial estimation model according to the number of assumed dimensions. The study sample consisted of (356) female students. The study concluded that the list with the one-dimensional assumption is more appropriate than the multi-dimensional assumption, The current research recommends preparing unified correction rules for the different methods of performance evaluation in the basic courses. It also suggests the importance of conducting studies aimed at examining the appropriateness of different evaluation methods for models of response theory to the
... Show MoreThe electric quadrupole moments for some scandium isotopes (41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47Sc) have been calculated using the shell model in the proton-neutron formalism. Excitations out of major shell model space were taken into account through a microscopic theory which is called core polarization effectives. The set of effective charges adopted in the theoretical calculations emerging about the core polarization effect. NushellX@MSU code was used to calculate one body density matrix (OBDM). The simple harmonic oscillator potential has been used to generate the single particle matrix elements. Our theoretical calculations for the quadrupole moments used the two types of effective interactions to obtain the best interaction compared with the exp
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc
... Show MoreThe cost of pile foundations is part of the super structure cost, and it became necessary to reduce this cost by studying the pile types then decision-making in the selection of the optimal pile type in terms of cost and time of production and quality .So The main objective of this study is to solve the time–cost–quality trade-off (TCQT) problem by finding an optimal pile type with the target of "minimizing" cost and time while "maximizing" quality. There are many types In the world of piles but in this paper, the researcher proposed five pile types, one of them is not a traditional, and developed a model for the problem and then employed particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, as one of evolutionary algorithms with t
... Show MoreConditional logistic regression is often used to study the relationship between event outcomes and specific prognostic factors in order to application of logistic regression and utilizing its predictive capabilities into environmental studies. This research seeks to demonstrate a novel approach of implementing conditional logistic regression in environmental research through inference methods predicated on longitudinal data. Thus, statistical analysis of longitudinal data requires methods that can properly take into account the interdependence within-subjects for the response measurements. If this correlation ignored then inferences such as statistical tests and confidence intervals can be invalid largely.
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The study presents a mathematical model with a disaggregating approach to the problem of production planning of a fida Company; which belongs to the ministry of Industry. The study considers disaggregating the entire production into 3 productive families of (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), connections hydraulics with each holds similar characteristics in terms of the installation cost, production time and stock cost. The Consequences are an ultimate use of the available production capacity as well as meeting the requirements of these families at a minimal cost using linear programming. Moreover, the study considers developing a Master production schedule that drives detailed material and production requi
... Show MoreThe research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model regarded as the important regression Models ,where of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis .
The ordinary estimating methods is failed in dealing with data that consist of the presence of outlier values and hence on the absence of such that have undesirable effect on the result. &nbs
... Show MoreResearch aims to shed light on the concept of corporate failures , display and analysis the most distinctive models used to predicting corporate failure; with suggesting a model to reveal the probabilities of corporate failures which including internal and external financial and non-financial indicators, A tested is made for the research objectivity and its indicators weight and by a number of academics professionals experts, in addition to financial analysts and have concluded a set of conclusions , the most distinctive of them that failure is not considered a sudden phenomena for the company and its stakeholders , it is an Event passes through numerous stages; each have their symptoms that lead eve
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