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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Ain Shams Engineering Journal
Neural network modeling of rutting performance for sustainable asphalt mixtures modified by industrial waste alumina
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 13 2022
Journal Name
Computation
A Pattern-Recognizer Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of New Crescent Visibility in Iraq
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Various theories have been proposed since in last century to predict the first sighting of a new crescent moon. None of them uses the concept of machine and deep learning to process, interpret and simulate patterns hidden in databases. Many of these theories use interpolation and extrapolation techniques to identify sighting regions through such data. In this study, a pattern recognizer artificial neural network was trained to distinguish between visibility regions. Essential parameters of crescent moon sighting were collected from moon sight datasets and used to build an intelligent system of pattern recognition to predict the crescent sight conditions. The proposed ANN learned the datasets with an accuracy of more than 72% in comp

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Intelligent Systems
Trip generation modeling for a selected sector in Baghdad city using the artificial neural network
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Abstract<p>This study is planned with the aim of constructing models that can be used to forecast trip production in the Al-Karada region in Baghdad city incorporating the socioeconomic features, through the use of various statistical approaches to the modeling of trip generation, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The research region was split into 11 zones to accomplish the study aim. Forms were issued based on the needed sample size of 1,170. Only 1,050 forms with responses were received, giving a response rate of 89.74% for the research region. The collected data were processed using the ANN technique in MATLAB v20. The same database was utilized to</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Estimation Pore and Fracture Pressure Based on Log Data; Case Study: Mishrif Formation/Buzurgan Oilfield at Iraq
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Prediction of the formation of pore and fracture pressure before constructing a drilling wells program are a crucial since it helps to prevent several drilling operations issues including lost circulation, kick, pipe sticking, blowout, and other issues. IP (Interactive Petrophysics) software is used to calculate and measure pore and fracture pressure. Eaton method, Matthews and Kelly, Modified Eaton, and Barker and Wood equations are used to calculate fracture pressure, whereas only Eaton method is used to measure pore pressure. These approaches are based on log data obtained from six wells, three from the north dome; BUCN-52, BUCN-51, BUCN-43 and the other from the south dome; BUCS-49, BUCS-48, BUCS-47. Along with the overburden pressur

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Estimation Pore and Fracture Pressure Based on Log Data; Case Study: Mishrif Formation/Buzurgan Oilfield at Iraq
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Prediction of the formation of pore and fracture pressure before constructing a drilling wells program are a crucial since it helps to prevent several drilling operations issues including lost circulation, kick, pipe sticking, blowout, and other issues. IP (Interactive Petrophysics) software is used to calculate and measure pore and fracture pressure. Eaton method, Matthews and Kelly, Modified Eaton, and Barker and Wood equations are used to calculate fracture pressure, whereas only Eaton method is used to measure pore pressure. These approaches are based on log data obtained from six wells, three from the north dome; BUCN-52, BUCN-51, BUCN-43 and the other from the south dome; BUCS-49, BUCS-48, BUCS-47. Along with the overburden pr

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Comparative Analysis of The Combined Model (Spatial and Temporal) and Regression Models for Predicting Murder Crime
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This research dealt with the analysis of murder crime data in Iraq in its temporal and spatial dimensions, then it focused on building a new model with an algorithm that combines the characteristics associated with time and spatial series so that this model can predict more accurately than other models by comparing them with this model, which we called the Combined Regression model (CR), which consists of merging two models, the time series regression model with the spatial regression model, and making them one model that can analyze data in its temporal and spatial dimensions. Several models were used for comparison with the integrated model, namely Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Reg

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Geoenergy Science And Engineering
Empirical model for predicting slug-pseudo slug and slug-churn transitions of upward air/water flow
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A pseudo-slug flow is a type of intermittent flow characterized by short, frothy, chaotic slugs that have a structure velocity lower than the mixture velocity and are not fully formed. It is essential to accurately estimate the transition from conventional slug (SL) flow to pseudo-slug (PSL) flow, and from SL to churn (CH), by precisely predicting the pressure losses. Recent research has showed that PSL and CH flows comprise a significant portion of the conventional flow pattern maps. This is particularly true in wellbores and pipelines with highly deviated large-diameter gas-condensate wellbores and pipelines. Several theoretical and experimental works studied the behavior of PSL and CH flows; however, few models have been suggested to pre

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Branch and Bound Algorithm with Penalty Function Method for solving Non-linear Bi-level programming with application
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The problem of Bi-level programming is to reduce or maximize the function of the target by having another target function within the constraints. This problem has received a great deal of attention in the programming community due to the proliferation of applications and the use of evolutionary algorithms in addressing this kind of problem. Two non-linear bi-level programming methods are used in this paper. The goal is to achieve the optimal solution through the simulation method using the Monte Carlo method using different small and large sample sizes. The research reached the Branch Bound algorithm was preferred in solving the problem of non-linear two-level programming this is because the results were better.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 29 2022
Journal Name
Current Trends In Geotechnical Engineering And Construction
Simulation Design and Performance of a Residential Complex Using Liquefied Petroleum Gas Network
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The population has been trying to use clean energy instead of combustion. The choice was to use liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domestic use, especially for cooking due to its advantages as a light gas, a lower cost, and clean energy. Residential complexes are supplied with liquefied petroleum gas for each housing unit, transported by pipes from LPG tanks to the equipment. This research aims to simulate the design and performance design of the LPG system in the building that is applied to a residential complex in Baghdad taken as a study case with eight buildings. The building has 11 floors, and each floor has four apartments. The design in this study has been done in two parts, part one is the design of an LPG system for one building, an

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 04 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Exploration And Production Technology
Perforation location optimization through 1-D mechanical earth model for high-pressure deep formations
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Optimum perforation location selection is an important study to improve well production and hence in the reservoir development process, especially for unconventional high-pressure formations such as the formations under study. Reservoir geomechanics is one of the key factors to find optimal perforation location. This study aims to detect optimum perforation location by investigating the changes in geomechanical properties and wellbore stress for high-pressure formations and studying the difference in different stress type behaviors between normal and abnormal formations. The calculations are achieved by building one-dimensional mechanical earth model using the data of four deep abnormal wells located in Southern Iraqi oil fields. The magni

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