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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 08 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Science And Technology
The local stability of an eco-epidemiological model involving a harvesting on predator population
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In this paper a prey - predator model with harvesting on predator species with infectious disease in prey population only has been proposed and analyzed. Further, in this model, Holling type-IV functional response for the predation of susceptible prey and Lotka-Volterra functional response for the predation of infected prey as well as linear incidence rate for describing the transition of disease are used. Our aim is to study the effect of harvesting and disease on the dynamics of this model.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 10 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
THE IMPACT OF DISEASE AND HARVESTING ON THE DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOR OF PREY PREDATOR MODEL
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In this paper, a harvested prey-predator model involving infectious disease in prey is considered. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are carried out. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that the existence of disease and harvesting can give rise to multiple attractors, including chaos, with variations in critical parameters.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Daniel's Model on the Achievement of Chemistry Among Fifth Grade Student
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The aim of this research is to find out the influence of Daniel's model on the skills of the twenty-first century among the students of the scientific-fifth grade at the secondary and preparatory government morning schools for the academic year 2022- 2023. Two groups were chosen out of five groups for the fifth-scientific grade, one of which represents the experimental group that is taught by the Daniel model, and the other is the control group that is taught in the traditional method. The equivalence of the two research groups was verified with a set of variables. As for the research tool, a scale was developed by the researchers for the skills of the twenty-first century, in which they adopted the framework of the Partnership Organizat

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 11 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
Distribution of Petrophysical Properties Based on Conceptual Facies Model, Mishrif Reservoir/South of Iraq
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A 3D geological model is an essential step to reveal reservoir heterogeneity and reservoir properties distribution. In the present study, a three-dimensional geological model for the Mishrif reservoir was built based on data obtained from seven wells and core data. The methodology includes building a 3D grid and populating it with petrophysical properties such as (facies, porosity, water saturation, and net to gross ratio). The structural model was built based on a base contour map obtained from 2D seismic interpretation along with well tops from seven wells. A simple grid method was used to build the structural framework with 234x278x91 grid cells in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively, with lengths equal to 150 meters. The to

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Word Cloud Model based on Hate Speech in an Online Social Media Environment
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Social media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify t

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the Toxic effect of new Cadmium ( II) complex [ CdL2]. 1/2H2O on GPT and ALP activity in some organs of female mice comparable with anitumor drug Cyclophosphamide (CP)
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Cadmium has been known to be harmful to human healthy , manily Via contaminated drinking water , food supplies , tobacco and industrial pollutant . The aim of this study was to determine the toxicity of new Cadmium (II) complex ( Bis[ 5- ( P- nitrophenyl ) – ? 4 – Phenyl- 1,2,4- triazole -3- dithiocarbamatohydrazide] cadmium (II) Hydra ( 0.5) and compare it with anticancer drug cyclophosphamide ( CP) in female albino mice . This complex causes to several alterations in Enzymatic activity of Glutamate Pyruvate Transaminase (GPT) and Alkaline Phosphatase (ALP ) in three organs after the treatment of mice with different doses of a new cadmium (II) complex ( 0.09 / 0.25ml , 0.18/ 0.5ml and 0.25mg /0.7 ml /30 gm of mous

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
AYĀT AL-HUJJAH FĪ SŪRAT AL-ANĀM RIWĀIAH WA DERĀIAH ( a model in three verses from Surat Al-An’am 108-110)
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The current research discusses the jurisprudence of the argumentative meaning in the Qur’an, and it is one of the general methods of responses in the Qur’an, as well as the argumentative approach to the recitations of the readers and directing their meanings. I have chosen a model for three verses from Surat Al-An’am, in which there are seven frequent recitations and seven odd ones, on a topic related to theology and faith; It forms the centerpiece of the argument verses in Surat Al-An'am; It contains the jurisprudence of dealing with infidels and dissenters, turning away and forbidding insulting what they claim besides God in the event of corruption, and God Almighty’s decree and wisdom in the occurrence of unbeli

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 09 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Status of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc Scores in Predicting Risk of Stroke and its Prevention in Iraqi Patients with Atrial Fibrillation
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Atrial fibrillation is associates with elevated risk of stroke. The simplest stroke risk assessment schemes are CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Aspirin and oral anticoagulants are recommended for stroke prevention in such patients.

The aim of this study was to  assess status of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in Iraqi atrial fibrillation patients and to report current status of stroke prevention in these patients with either warfarin or aspirin in relation to these scores.

This prospective cross-sectional study was carried out at Tikrit, Samarra, Sharqat, Baquba, and AL-Numaan hospitals from July 2017 to October 2017. CHADS2

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