Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
The research aims to identify the effect of teaching-learning design based on the constructivism theory on the life skills of middle stage students. The sample consisted of (60) students from one of the middle schools in Baghdad's governorate. The experimental group and control group consisted of 30 students for each group, the research tool was the life skills scale composed of (78) items. The scale proved its validity and reliability, which was found to be (0.85). The results showed a statistically significant difference in life skills between the two groups of research in favor of the experimental group, which studied the educational design according to models of constructivism theory compared to the usual method of teaching.
The main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration
... Show MoreIdentify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think
... Show MoreThe evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan
... Show MoreThe behavior and shear strength of full-scale (T-section) reinforced concrete deep beams, designed according to the strut-and-tie approach of ACI Code-19 specifications, with various large web openings were investigated in this paper. A total of 7 deep beam specimens with identical shear span-to-depth ratios have been tested under mid-span concentrated load applied monotonically until beam failure. The main variables studied were the effects of width and depth of the web openings on deep beam performance. Experimental data results were calibrated with the strut-and-tie approach, adopted by ACI 318-19 code for the design of deep beams. The provided strut-and-tie design model in ACI 318-19 code provision was assessed and found to be u
... Show MoreInflation is one of the important issues that the economic authorities in all countries of the world care about, where the loss of money for its function is one of the most important and largest inflationary effects that this phenomenon leaves on the economy, and Iraq, like other countries, has had its share of the problem of inflation for a long time due to the circumstances that He went through it, whether it was the wars he fought or the economic blockade that was imposed on him in the nineties of the last century. Economically, the problem of inflation is addressed through the use of fiscal policy tools, including tax increases in order to abso
... Show MoreInflation is one of the important issues that the economic authorities in all countries of the world care about, where the loss of money for its function is one of the most important and largest inflationary effects that this phenomenon leaves on the economy, and Iraq, like other countries, has had its share of the problem of inflation for a long time due to the circumstances that He went through it, whether it was the wars he fought or the economic blockade that was imposed on him in the nineties of the last century. Economically, the problem of inflation is addressed through the use of fiscal policy tools, including tax increases in order to abso
... Show MoreGeologic modeling is the art of constructing a structural and stratigraphic model of a reservoir from analyses and interpretations of seismic data, log data, core data, etc. [1].
A static reservoir model typically involves four main stages, these stages are Structural modeling, Stratigraphic modeling, Lithological modeling and Petrophysical modeling [2].
Ismail field is exploration structure, located in the north Iraq, about 55 km north-west of Kirkuk city, to the north-west of the Bai Hassan field, the distance between the Bai Hassan field and Ismael field is about one kilometer [3].
Tertiary period reservoir sequences (Main Limestone), which comprise many economica
... Show MoreRecently Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have frequently been used for optimizing the solution of estimation problems. One of the main advantages of using these techniques is that they require no knowledge or gradient information about the response surface. The poor behavior of genetic algorithms in some problems, sometimes attributed to design operators, has led to the development of other types of algorithms. One such class of these algorithms is compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA), it dramatically reduces the number of bits reqyuired to store the poulation and has a faster convergence speed. In this paper compact Genetic Algorithm is used to optimize the maximum likelihood estimator of the first order moving avergae model MA(1). Simulation results
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