Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Abstract

The study presents a mathematical model with a disaggregating approach to the problem of production planning of a fida Company; which belongs to the ministry of Industry. The study considers disaggregating the entire production into 3 productive families of (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), connections hydraulics with each holds similar characteristics in terms of the installation cost, production time and stock cost. The Consequences are an ultimate use of the available production capacity as well as meeting the requirements of these families at a minimal cost using linear programming. Moreover, the study considers developing a Master production schedule that drives detailed material and production requi

Background: Acetaminophen (N-acetyl-para-aminophenol, or APAP) poisoning, whether intentional or accidental, is a major general health problem, with its toxicity prevalence significantly increasing in many countries. Currently, acetaminophen is considered one of the main causes of acute liver failure globally.

Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible hepatoprotective effect of Omega-3,6,9 against acetaminophen-induced hepatotoxicity in albino male mice.

Methods: Thirty-five albino male mice were randomly divided into five groups: Group 1 (the negative control) received liquid paraffin orally at a dose of 10 ml/kg for t

Background: Gugglusterone has been reported to provide protection against inflammatory and oxidative reactions of different pathological conditions. Objectives: The main object of this research work is to evaluate the renoprotective effects of guggulsterone in the prevention of cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in rats via assessment of renal function and histological study. Materials and methods: Rats in this study were split into four groups which comprise a control group, an induction group, a third group receiving low-dose guggulsterone, and a fourth group receiving high-dose guggulsterone. Results: a single dose of cisplatin drug has jeopardisedrenal physiology that has been demonstrated in histopathology sections and elevation

: Cigarette smoking is a lifestyle behavior that causes significant adverse health effects. Cigarette smoke contains chemicals, many of which are lead to the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which can lead to apoptosis and autophagy. To estimate the association of Cigarette smoking with the autophagy and immunity, technology of real time polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR) for gene expression of (LC3A, LC3B, LC3C, myd88) was used. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique was utilized to measurement the amount of TNF-α protein. The ratios of LC3A/LC3B and LC3B/LC3C were calculated to estimate the autophagy flux. The results indicate the expression of LC3B, LC3C and Myd88 genes in smokers is increased significantly (p

This study aimed to see how allicin (45mg/kg BW) affected diabetic Mellitus in male rats (DM). Forty male rats were utilized, and they were split into four groups at random for 42 days. T2 was treated with 45 mg/kg B.W of allicin dissolved in 1 ml of D.W daily and injected with a single dose of sodium citrate buffer (0.5ml Intra-Peritoneal IP), DM was induced in T1 and T2 by injection of a single dose of streptozotocin 50 mg/kg B.W IP, T1 was assigned as a positive control, T3 received 45 mg/kg B.W. of allicin dissolved in 1 ml D.W. every day, and a single dose of sodium citrate buffer was injected (0.5ml IP). When diabetic rats treated with allicin in T2 were compared to diabetic rats in T1, the findings indicated a significant increase (P

Diabetes Mellitus is a group of metabolic diseases characterized by increasing of glucose level in plasma compared with normal value (hyperglycemia). This disease also causes elevation of lipid profile levels except HDL (High density lipoproteins) which increased relatively. The effects of the polyphenolic mixture (catechins, epicatechins, procyanidin B1, procyanidin B2 and procyanidin C1) on total cholesterol (TC), triacylglycerol (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) were studied in (30) streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice with (20-25)gm weight. Mice were given (30 mg/mL) of Polyphenolic Cocoa beans Extracts (CE) once daily for (7) days before Streptozotocin STZ injection and for (21 day) there after. A

To determine the association between cigarette smoking and oxidative stress, a study was conducted in the period from January 2020 to April 2021, at College of Medicine, Al-Nahrain University, Baghdad, Iraq. The Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique was utilized for measurement the antioxidant enzymes including: Glutathione superoxide (GPX) and catalase (CAT) and the biomarker of lipid peroxidation Malondialdehyde (MDA). Also, the gene expression of Nrf2 and HO-1were determined by using RT-PCR technique. The results indicate lower level of both GPX and CAT (p ≤ 0.001) in smokers compared with non-smokers. While the result of MDA indicate higher level in smokers (p≤0.001) compared with nonsmokers. The Nrf2 and HO-1 gene exp

Background: Adenosine mediates homodynamic
changes and resulted in the production of acute renal
failure (ARF) in female Albino-Wister rats, therefore,
adenosine level increases highly in ARF.
Objective: This experiment was designed to
investigate the effect of the adenosine antagonist
aminophylline and the adenosine agonist indomethacin on glycerol-induced ARF.
Method: Glycerol induced ARF was produced by a
single dose (10ml/kg, 50%v/v with distilled water i.m)
in rats, which were restricted to drinking water.
Aminophylline was used in our study in a dose of
25mg/kg, i.p) while the dose of indomethacin was
10mg/kg, i.p), assessment of renal function was done
by measuring blood urea
nitrogen (BUN

Background: As acetaminophen (APAP) toxicity has become more common in many countries, related cases of poisoning, whether deliberate or unintentional, have been identified as a key contributor to acute liver failure. Aime: To discover if omega-369 fatty acids could protect the liver of male mice from the effects of acetamiophen. Methods: Thirty-five albino male mice were allocated to one of five groups at random. Group 1 served as the "negative control" and received a single intraperitoneal injection (10 ml/kg) of normal saline on the eleventh day of the test following ten days of receiving liquid paraffin orally at a dose of 10 ml/kg. The liquid paraffin was given to group 2 "positive control". Group 3 received Omega 369 (50 mg/kg