The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Background: Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a cytokine that has several functions, including stimulating growth and inhibiting cell death. It has the potential to operate as a biomarker for the accurate prediction of disease severity and activity, platelets-rich plasma was used in the treatment of oral lichen planus and can change the salivary IL-6 level.

Objectives: To study the clinical outcome of intralesional platelets-rich plasma in patients with oral lichen planus and to measure salivary IL-6 levels before and after the treatment with platelets-rich plasma were the aims of this study.

Subjects and Methods: In this clinical trial, for each patient a standardi

This research is an attempt to study aspects of syntactic deviation in AbdulWahhab Al-Bayyati with reference to English. It reviews this phenomenon from an extra-linguistic viewpoint. It adopts a functional approach depending on the stipulates of systemic Functional Grammar as developed by M.A.K. Halliday and others adopting this approach. Within related perspective, fairly’s taxonomy (1975) has been chosen to analyze the types of syntactic deviation because it has been found suitable and relevant to describe this phenomenon. The research hypothesizes that syntactic deviation is pervasive in Arabic poetry, in general and in Abdul-Wahhab Al-Bayyati Poetry in specific, and can be analyzed in the light of systemic Functional Grammar

Numerical Investigation was done for steady state laminar mixed convection and thermally and hydrodynamic fully developed flow through horizontal rectangular duct including circular core with two cases of time periodic boundary condition, first case  on the rectangular wall while keeping core wall constant and other on both the rectangular duct and core walls. The used governing equations are continuity momentum and energy equations. These equations are normalized and solved using the Vorticity-Stream function and the Body Fitted Coordinates (B.F.C.) methods. The Finite Difference approach with the Line Successive Over Relaxation (LSOR) method is used to obtain all the computational results the (B.F.C.) method is used to generate th

This paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b

Background: Obesity is considered an important risk factor for periodontal disease. It has been reported that reactive oxygen species linking both diseases, systemic melatonin supplementation as antioxidant therapy, was addressed as an adjuvant to scaling and root surface debridement (SRP) to enhance the treatment of periodontitis. Objective: To investigate the efficacy of systemic melatonin administration in periodontitis-obese patients as an adjuvant to scaling and root surface debridement (SRP). Methods: A randomized clinical trial was conducted at a dental-specialized center. Eighty subjects were included and allocated into group-I: twenty periodontium-healthy, normal-weight people; group-II: 30 obese patients with stage-III tre

The particle-hole state densities have been calculated for 232Th in
the case of incident neutron with  ,  1 Z Z T T T T and   2 Z T T .
The finite well depth, surface effect, isospin and Pauli correction are
considered in the calculation of the state densities and then the
transition rates. The isospin correction function ( ) iso f has been
examined for different exciton configurations and at different
excitation energies up to 100 MeV. The present results are indicated
that the included corrections have more affected on transition rates
behavior for        , , and    above 30MeV excitation energy

The aim of this research is to estimate the parameters of the linear regression model with errors following ARFIMA model by using wavelet method depending on maximum likelihood and approaching general least square as well as ordinary least square. We use the estimators in practical application on real data, which were the monthly data of Inflation and Dollar exchange rate obtained from the (CSO) Central Statistical organization for the period from 1/2005 to 12/2015. The results proved that (WML) was the most reliable and efficient from the other estimators, also the results provide that the changing of fractional difference parameter (d) doesn’t effect on the results.

Mixed convection heat transfer in a vertical concentric annulus packed with a metallic porous media and heated at a constant heat flux is experimentally investigated with water as the working fluid. A series of experiments have been carried out with a Rayleigh number range from Ra=122418.92 to 372579.31 and Reynolds number that based on the particles diameter of Re_d=14.62, 19.48 and 24.36. Under steady state condition, the measured data were collected and analyzed. Results show that the wall surface temperatures are affected by the imposed heat flux variation and Reynolds number variation. The variation of the local heat transfer coefficient and the mean Nusselt number are presented and analyzed. An empirical