Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong wille

Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong w

Background: Nutritional status during childhood is very important for individual development and growth. Nutrition has local and systemic effect on the oral health by affecting dental health and salivary composition. This study was aimed to determine effect of iron, sodium and potassium ions in saliva on the nutritional status and to determine the effect of nutritional status on caries severity among preschool children. Material and Methods: The sample consists of 90 children aged 4 and 5 years of both genders, selected from 6 kindergartens in Al-Resafa aspect of Baghdad province. Children classified according to their nutritional status into three groups (normalweight, underweight and overweight). Nutritional status was determined by usi

Some species, such as the Eurasian Collared-Dove (S. decaocto) are fast expanding around the planet, while others, such as the European Turtle-Dove (S. turtur), are experiencing precipitous population declines. Climate change, habitat loss, greater cultivated areas, and hunting pressure are the major threats to the diversity of Streptopelia. A few species require urgent conservation action. Priority for subsequent research should be to redress outstanding taxonomic uncertainties, ascertain the effect of climate change on distributions, and put in place conservation measures for declining taxa. We provide here a detailed review on how it is possible to understand the diversity of Streptopelia and how such an understanding can con

Cerium oxide CeO2, or ceria, has gained increasing interest owing to its excellent catalytic applications. Under the framework of density functional theory (DFT), this contribution demonstrates the effect that introducing the element nickel (Ni) into the ceria lattice has on its electronic, structural, and optical characteristics. Electronic density of states (DOSs) analysis shows that Ni integration leads to a shrinkage of Ce 4f states and improvement of Ni 3d states in the bottom of the conduction band. Furthermore, the calculated optical absorption spectra of an Ni-doped CeO2 system shifts towards longer visible light and infrared regions. Results indicate that Ni-doping a CeO2 system would result in a decrease of the band gap. Finally,

A new laboratory study conducted on stepped spillways in order to investigate their efficiency of dissipating flow energy. All previous study on stepped spillway indicated that the flow energy dissipation decreased as increasing in discharge. Increasing in the step numbers and the spillway slope led to energy dissipation decrease. In this study, an experimental attempt to increase energy dissipation at variable discharges was performed on stepped spillway and that leads to decreasing the cost of initiating the stilling basin or may be ignoring it. Five spillways were constructed from concrete and tested to investigate and compare among them. Three were roughed by gravel with different size for each one, one of them was s

             The synthesis of nanoparticles (GNPs) from the reduction of HAuCl₄ ^.3H₂O by aluminum metal was obtained in aqueous solution with the use of Arabic gum as a stabilizing agent. The GNPs were characterized by TEM, AFM and Zeta potential spectroscopy. The reduction process was monitored over time by measuring ultraviolet spectra at a range of λ 520-525 nm. Also the color changes from yellow to ruby red, shape and size of GNP was studied by TEM. Shape was spherical and the size of particles was (12-17.5) nm. The best results were obtained at pH 6.

Every body has a size and mass that distinguishes it from others and makes it different from others. Some of these bodies are huge and large in size, and some are small and light in weight. Among these masses and bodies are some that are dealt with by their size and weight, each according to its quantity, weight, and cheapness. This is why they created quantities by which these weights and quantities could be estimated, so they used measures and weights for that. Objectives: The research aims to know some measures and weights, such as the wife’s maintenance, the amount of zakat, etc.I found it to be a widely spread topic, and widely used in the folds of jurisprudence. During my reading of jurisprudence books, I found jurists using many qu

The article considers a creolized text as a means of modern communication, describing its key verbal and visual components; the relationship of concepts polycode and creolized text has been shown; the universal basic image features have been called; the following kinds of creolized texts have been distinguished; it has been proved that the effective means of attracting the attention of the addressee is the use of expressive font features, which are divided into two groups: topographics (mechanisms of varying of areal syntagmatic of a text) and supragraphcs (change of typeface of font).