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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
DEO: A Dynamic Event Order Strategy for t-way Sequence Covering Array Test Data Generation
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Sequence covering array (SCA) generation is an active research area in recent years. Unlike the sequence-less covering arrays (CA), the order of sequence varies in the test case generation process. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of the SCA strategies, earlier works reported that finding a minimal size of a test suite is considered as an NP-Hard problem. In addition, most of the existing strategies for SCA generation have a high order of complexity due to the generation of all combinatorial interactions by adopting one-test-at-a-time fashion. Reducing the complexity by adopting one-parameter- at-a-time for SCA generation is a challenging process. In addition, this reduction facilitates the supporting for a higher strength of cove

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Artificial intelligence is employed in studying the relationship between some physical measurements and the accuracy to the young goalkeepers in football
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Physical measurements are one of the basic factors that affect the performance of the goalkeeper, especially when confronting fixed kicks that require special skills such as the reaction and accuracy in concentration, and with technological development artificial intelligence has become an effective tool for analyzing mathematical data that is difficult to discover in traditional methods The study aims to employ techniques Artificial intelligence to study the relationship between physical measurements and the accuracy of confronting the fixed kicks of goalkeepers in football. This study will contribute to providing a deeper understanding of physical factors that affect the performance of goalkeepers, in addition to designing dedicat

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the relationship between the Premiums and compensations in Life Insurance: An Applied Research in the General Iraqi Insurance Company
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           Communities seek to achieve the economic growth through the optimal use of resources. The human resource is considered the most important of those resources where the insurance institutions take the larger role in the protection of this resource and reducing the impact caused by dangers realization that endures. The general Iraqi insurance company is considered the leading in the field of life insurance since it was founded, and until now.

          This research is based on an analyzing the relation between premiums and compensations   of life insurance, for individual and the group insurance, and a reality of the

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
French Language in Iraq: Study of the Relationship between University Education and Social Activities (The Case of the University of Baghdad)
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Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi | Volume: 48 Issue: 2

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 16 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Complementary Relationship between Target Costing and Value Chain In The Public Corporations Of The Jordanian Industrial Sector: An Empirical Study
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This research aims to study the target costing and value chain with their complimentary relationship in reducing product costs, meeting the needs of customer, and achieving strategic competitive advantage for manufacturing corporations in response to face international competition, technological development and continuous changing expectations of customers.    No doubt, the target costing and value chain both currently occupy a great deal of the attention of managers and accountants at the manufacturing corporations due to the significance to insure their continuity, growth and development. This significance has been the main motive to examine the role of target costing and value chain in a sample of public corporations of the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Causal relationship between sugar prices, imported sun flower oil, crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar
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Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
University Youth Attitudes towards Electronic Advertisements and their Relationship to the Behavior of the Consumer A Field Study of a Sample of Students of the College of Mass-Communication / University of Baghdad as a Model
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This research aims at identifying the communicative habits and content reflections on the communication process, especially the young audience which is one of the main group for whom the announcements are made. Because young people face life with passion and aspiration making them respond to each effect used by the media in the design of the advertising using all the effective techniques, attractive methods for young children like depending on drama, technical tricks, music and logos easily to be remembered and responded to the desires of the young in their entertainment. This research also aims at identifying the impact of the internet as a channel of commercial advertising on the purchasing behavior of young people at the universities

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 13 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants
The Accuracy of Intraoral Registration for Dynamic Surgical Navigation in the Edentulous Maxilla
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Purpose: Despite the high clinical accuracy of dynamic navigation, inherent sources of error exist. The purpose of this study was to improve the accuracy of dynamic navigated surgical procedures in the edentulous maxilla by identifying the optimal configuration of intra-oral points that results in the lowest possible registration error for direct clinical implementation. Materials and methods: Six different 4-area configurations were tested by 3 operators against positive and negative controls (8-areas and 3-areas, respectively) using a skull model. The two dynamic navigation systems (X-Guide® and NaviDent®) and the two registration methods (bone surface tracing and fiducial markers) produced four registration groups. The accuracy of the

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Mathematics In Operational Research
A single server fuzzy queues with priority and unequal service rates
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
comparison between the methods estimate nonparametric and semiparametric transfer function model in time series the Using simulation
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 The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m

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