The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
This study examines postgraduate students’ awareness of pragmatic aspects, including Grice Maxims, Politeness, and Direct and Indirect forms of speech. According to Paul Grice’s theory of implicature, which is considered one of the most important contributions to pragmatics, this paper discusses how postgraduate students can meet the cooperative principle when communicating effectively. It also outlines how does politeness principles influence obeying or violating the maxims and how is the use of direct or indirect forms of utterances prompted by politeness. Sixteen master’s students of Linguistics and Literature were asked to take a multiple-choice test. The test will be represented along with the interpretation of each optio
... Show MoreBackground: This research identified Streptococci spp. depending on culture, biochemistry, the VITEK technique, ability to produce biofilms, and antibiotic resistance. Aim: The goal of this study was to perform microbiological procedures to evaluate the qualitative qualities of mozzarella cheese against infective Streptococci using microbiological care. Methods: Sixty (60) mozzarella cheese samples were brought from diverse markets in Baghdad from October 2023 to December 2023 at the Zoonoses Research Unit and Veterinary Public Health Department, Veterinary Medicine College, University of Baghdad. Culture of samples on agar (MacConkey and blood) and aerobically incubated at 37°C for 48 hours. Gram staining purified colonies to
... Show MoreAbstract Ternary Silver Indium selenide Sulfur AgInSe1.8S0.2 in pure form and with a 0.2 ratio of Sulfur were fabricated via thermal evaporation under vacuum 3*10-6 torr on glasses substrates with a thickness of (550) nm. These films were investigated to understand their structural, optical, and Hall Characteristics. X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to examine the impact of varying Sulfur ratios on the structural properties. The results revealed that the AgInSe1.8S0.2 thin films in their pure form and with a 0.2 Sulfur ratio, both at room temperature and after annealing at 500 K, exhibited a polycrystalline nature with a tetragonal structure and a predominant orientation along the (112) plane, indicating an enhanced de
... Show MoreNew metal complexes of the ligand 4-[5-(2-hydoxy-phenyl)-[1,3,4- oxadiazol -2-ylimino methyl]-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-1,2-dihydro-pyrazol-3-one (L) with the metal ions Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) were prepared in alcoholic medium. The Schiff base was synthesized through condensate of [4-antipyrincarboxaldehyde] with[2-amino-5-(2-hydroxy-phenyl-1,3,4- oxadiazol] in alcoholic medium . Two tetradentate Schiff base ligand were used for complexation upon two metal ions of Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+ and Zn2+ as dineucler formula M2L2.4H2O. The metal complexes were characterized by FTIR Spectroscopy, electronic Spectroscopy, elemental analysis, magnetic susceptidbility measurements, and also the ligand was characterized by 1H-NMR spectra, and m
... Show MoreThis study describes preparation a new series of tetra-dentate N2O2 dinuclear complexes Cr(III), Co(II)and Cu(II) of the Schiff base 2-[5-(2-hydroxy-phenyl)-1,3,4-thiadiazol-2-ylimino]-methyl-naphthalen-1-ol], (LH2) derived from 1-hydroxy-naphthalene-2-carbaldehyde with 2-amino-5-(2-hydroxy-phenyl)-1,3,4-thiadiazole. These ligands were characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis, Mass spectra, elemental analysis, and 1H-NMR. All prepared complexes have been characterized by conductance measurement, magnetic susceptibility, electronic spectra, infrared spectrum, thermal Analysis (TGA), and metal analysis by atomic absorption. The stoichiometry of metal to ligand, magnetic susceptibility, and electronic spectra measurements show an octahedral geom
... Show MoreFour samples of the Se55S20Sb15Sn10 alloy were prepared using the melting point method. Samples B, C and D were irradiated with (6.04×1010, 12.08×1010 and 18.12×1010 (n.cm-2s -1 ) of thermal neutron beam from a neutron source (241Am-9Be) respectively, while sample A was left not irradiated. The electrical properties were assessed both before and after the radiation. All irradiated and non-irradiated samples show three conduction mechanisms, at low temperatures, electrical conductivity is achieved by electron hopping between local states near the Fermi level. At intermediate temperatures, conduction occurs by the jumping of electrons between local states at band tails. At high temperatures, electrons transfer between extended stat
... Show MoreThis study aimed to study the inhibition activity of purified bacteriocin produced from the local isolation Lactococcuslactis ssp. lactis against pathogenic bacteria species isolated from clinical samples in some hospitals Baghdad city. Screening of L. lactis ssp. Lactis and isolated from the intestines fish and raw milk was performed in well diffusion method. The results showed that L. lactis ssp. lactis (Lc4) was the most efficient isolate in producing the bacteriocin as well observed inhibitory activity the increased that companied with the concentration, the concentration of the twice filtrate was better in obtaining higher inhibition diameters compared to the one-fold concentration. The concentrate
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